6/24/2016
Engineering Risk
Analysis
CSULA SUMMER 2016
JOHN KOELSCH
Introduction
TextBooks
Black Swan
Risk Analysis in Engineering: Techniques, Tools, and Trends
Syllabus
Course Description
Electrical and Computer Engineering EE 514 Systems Risk Analysis (

EE 513 SYSTEMS ENGINEERING
ANALYTICAL HIERARCHICAL
PROCESS
Prof. Joel Harris
CSULA Dept. of Electrical
Engineering/Computer
Science/Technology
THE ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS
ANOTHER METHOD TO MAKE
DECISIONS
Used with Multiple-criteria/multiple
alternati

EE 513 Final Examination Study Guide
Be able to solve problems that use one of the six main interest formulas as have been
described and lectured upon, in Fabrykys text book in Chapter 8. You will be, again,
given both the formula table and the relevant i

Homework Problem Set # 5
Problem 1: Given the following objective function:
z = 4x1 + 4x2
and the following constraints:
x1 + 2x2 40
x1 + x2 30
2x1 + 3x2 72
x1, x2 0
Determine the optimum maximum solution for this system of constraints
Solution:
Initial t

EE 513 Homework #4 Problems
Problem 1:
You are the systems engineer for a plastics company. The vice president of production has now
decided that the company should build a recycling plant that will recycle/rework used containers
made of polyethylene. The

Final Exam Take home section EE-514 Sections 01 and 03
Problem 1 For 25 points
Consider the success tree below
A) Find the minimum cut set
B) Find the minimum pathset
C) Find the equivalent fault tree
2. For 20 points: Consider the event tree shown below

Prof. Joel Harris
27 January 2016
CSULA ECST Department
1
Section 9.2.4
Objective of the process: to find the
optimum levels of procurement (in
units) and inventory (also units) as well as
total cost for the inventory system.
NOTE: you will not be asked t

Prof . Joel Harris
25 January 2016
CSULA Engineering Dept.
1
Chapter 9 Optimization in
Design and Operations
WARNING: some candid comments about
the material in this chapter:
Much of the first section of this chapter will be a
review for many of you
The m

13 January 2016
Prof. Joel Harris
1
One of the best means of evaluating a proposed
effort/project with other, ill defined opportunities that
may exist.
A widely accepted index of profitability.
Sample/Example Problem:
The government of Dubai, UAE, has de

Midterm EE-514 Systems Risk Analysis Section 01 MW 4:20-6:00 MW Instructor John Koelsch
1) For 20 points There are three basic elements of risk analysis. List them, define them, and give
at least one example of each.
2) For 25 points The frequency of a sc

1
EE 513 System Design
and Analysis
Prof. Joel K. Harris
CSULA ECST Department
10 February 2016
2
Multiple Source Alternative
Optimization
Source dependent vs. source independent parameters
Source dependent parameters:
Replenishment rate (R)
Lead time

1
EE 513
SYSTEM DESIGN &
ANALYSIS
CHAPTER 8 MODELS
FOR ECONOMIC
EVALUATION
Prof. Joel Harris 12 January 2016
2
Economic Evaluation
Models
Interest/Interest Formulas
Concept of Time Value of Money
Basis: money currently in hand is worth
more than money to

Homework Assignment # 2
EE 513
1. Problem: using the table below, determine which alternative you
would choose, given the criteria ratings and the 3 alternative choices
that are given. First use Rule 1 and then use Rule 2 to do your
analysis
Alternative
C

EE 513 Homework 1 Solutions
1) Given F, find P (P|F).
1
a. Formula: [F] (1 i) n
= $5500 (.5645) = $3104.75
b. Formula is the same
= $8500 (.4713) = $3547.05
c. Same formula
= $30,000 (.6806) = $20,418.00
d. $15,000 (.4039) = $6058.50
2). Quadrupling origi

1
EE 513
SYSTEM DESIGN &
ANALYSIS
CHAPTER 8 MODELS
FOR ECONOMIC
EVALUATION
Prof. Joel Harris 7 January 2016
2
Economic Evaluation
Models
Interest/Interest Formulas
Concept of Time Value of Money
Basis: money currently in hand is worth
more than money to b

Prof. Joel K. Harris
CSULA ECST Department
4 January 2016
1
Fabrycky/Blanchard Chapter 7
Decision Making Models &
Alternatives
Factors that impede goal attainment
Limiting factors
Strategic factors
Types of decision making models:
Physical models mi

Solutions to EE 513 Homework # 2
1. Using Rule 1: Retain any alternative, if it meets one of the minimum
standards listed in the table.
For Rule 1: Alternative D meets the minimum standard for the Nicer
criterion, so it is retained. Alternative E meets th

Homework 1 Assignment EE 513
1. What is the present worth of the future payments listed below:
a. $5500, 6 years from now, at an interest rate of 10%
compounded annually
b. $8500, 15 years from now, at an interest rate of 6%
compounded annually
c. $30,000

EE 513-01 Midterm Exam Solutions
1. For the problem involving Rule 1 and Rule 2:
For Rule 1 (an alternative is retained/kept if it meets just one minimum standard,
Alternatives Pink, Yellow and Purple all meet at least one minimum
standard and thus ALL ar

EE 514 Homework Assignment Number 1
Please complete the following problems. Due date Wednesday June 29th
4 For the system below,
Draw a fault tree with the top event (system output fails to occur