Name
SHORT ANSWER/ESSAY.
1) In a society with a marginal
propensity to consume of 80%, the
government increases expenditure
by $40 billion and increases tax
receipts by $40 billion. What is the
impact on aggregate demand?
Explain your answer.
2) Explain t
Mali: Macroeconomic Outline
and Forecast
Recovering from 2012
coup and civil war
Agenda
Background
Recent Events
Real Sector
Inflation and Exchange Rate
External Sector
Fiscal Sector
Monetary Sector
Conclusions and Concerns
Presenter: Claire Pengelly
Date
Distributed Lag Models
The Koyck Distributed Lag Estimator
1. Begin with a model of Y as a function of X and k lags of X:
[1]
Yt = a + b 0Xt + b1Xt-1 + b2Xt-2 + b3Xt-3 + . + b kXt-k + et
i
2. Restrict the coefficients such that b i = b0
Assuming 0 < < 1,
Mohr
Assoc
Chapte
13 & 3
Leigh Neethling
[email protected]
First six weeks of term: Rm 3.12 Leslie
Social Science Building, thereafter Room
4.09 School of Economics
Office hours
Tuesday 10-11
Wed 10-11
Welcome to ECO1011S
Important Dates
What to
Exponential Smoothing
Simple Exponential smoothing is a technique that can be applied to time series
data, either to produce smoothed data for presentation, or to make forecasts. The
time series data themselves are a sequence of observations. The observed
Jong Ekonoom van die Jaar Kompetisie
2015
Young Economist of the Year Competition
explore the world of the economist and test your skills at predicting key economic variables
choose a team of 24
register as soon as possible!
do the 4 forecasts: 14 Aug,
ECO1011S: Macroeconomics I
Week 2:
Gross Domestic Production
(GDP contd)
Readings: M&F 13 & 3, M 2
Leigh Neethling
[email protected]
First six weeks of term: Rm 3.12 Leslie Social Science
Building, thereafter Room 4.09 School of Economics
Office h
Key economic people
1
GDP equals Expenditure equals
Income
Total expenditure - aggregate expenditure (AE)
AE = consumption exp + investment + govt exp + net exports
Aggregate Income (Y) earned from producing g&s is equal
to total amt paid for FoPs used
Nominal vs Real GDP
Real and nominal variables
Inflation means the same outputs could cost more this year
than last year
This means that we need to know how much of a given change in
GDP is related to price changes, and how much to changes in output
We
ECO5074S
Cost Benefit Analysis
Beatrice Conradie
[email protected] or directly after the lecture
Excellent primer for financial appraisal
Campbell and Brown (2003). Benefit Cost Analysis: Financial and
economic appraisal using spreadsheets. Camb
ECO5074S
Cost Benefit Analysis
Beatrice Conradie
[email protected] or directly after the lecture
Cost benefit block assignment
Explore the literature to find a collection of 3-5 cost benefit
articles on a topic that interests you (preferably yo
ECO5074F
Cost Benefit Analysis
Beatrice Conradie
[email protected] or directly after the lecture
Gines de Rus, 2010. The micro-foundations of CBA. Chapter 11 in:
Introduction to cost-benefit analysis: Looking for reasonable shortcuts.
Edward Elg
Impact Assessment
Eco5074F
Lawrence Edwards
1
Acknowledgements
This module draws on a TIPS Impact Analysis training
course developed by Rob Davies and Dirk van Seventer
It also draws on material developed by Karl Pauw
Finally, it draws on the excellent
From IO to SAM: Supplyand-Use Structure
Chapter 3 & 4 Breisinger et al. (2009)
United Nations (1999), ch 1 & ch 12.
Warning: I find the IFPRI (Breisinger et al. 2009) equations of the
SAM model very confusing. The equations, however, are explicit
about ho
Macroeconomic Policy Analysis
in Low Income Countries
THE
MACROECONOMIC
FRAMEWORK and the
THEORY of FINANCIAL
PROGRAMMING
By Dr. Mark Ellyne
Course Assessment
Lecture and Tutorials (required)
Weekly assignment (7-8 weeks) 50%
Project and presentation 50%
Macroeconomic Policy
Analysis - 5075
Dr. Mark Ellyne
1
Lessons Learned
from Zimbabwes
Hyperinflation and
Dollarization
25 August 2015
Story about Money,
Inflation, and the Exchange Rate
What is money and How is it created?
Zimbabwes inflation, exchange
Modelling
considerations &
Limitations
ABS (2011) Australian National Accounts: Input-Output Tables, Australian
Bureau of Statistics
Chapter 5 Breisinger et al. (2009)
Pauw, K. and Leibbrandt, M. (2012) Minimum Wages and Household Poverty:
General Equilib
Macroeconomic Policy Analysis
in Low Income Countries
Lectures 7:
Money and
Monetary Policy
By Dr. Mark Ellyne
Goals of the Lecture
How to measure the money supply,
and understand the monetary survey
and the central bank balance sheet.
Quantity Theory of
Macroeconomic Policy Analysis
in Low Income Countries
Lecture 6:
Fiscal Budget
By Dr. Mark Ellyne
Government and Public Sector
Goals
Understand the structure of government
budget accounts.
Learn strategies for forecasting revenues
and expenditures.
How to
Macroeconomic Policy Analysis
in Low Income Countries
Lectures 8:
Policy Framework
By Dr. Mark Ellyne
Goals of the Lecture
Review process of creating a no-policychange scenario that is consistent across
sectors
Understand different policy frameworks
betwe
DAVID KAPYA
GLOBALIZATION, INDUSTRIALIZATION & INNOVATION
PRESENTATION ON
TRADE GLOBALIZATION
(CHAPTER 3 & 8)
30/07/2015
The Case for Free Trade
Based on the theories of Absolute and comparative advantages
Without Government interference, nations can spec
Impact Analysis
Wrap-up
1
Wrap-up
Summary
Unconstrained model
Constrained model
SAM multiplier models
Introduction to CGE models
Course wrap-up
What to expect from the exam
2
Unconstrained IO Models
Assume
final demands exogenous
gross outputs a
EViews Illustrated.book Page 1 Monday, February 25, 2013 10:06 AM
EViews Illustrated
for Version 8
Richard Startz
University of California, Santa Barbara
EViews Illustrated.book Page 2 Monday, February 25, 2013 10:06 AM
EViews Illustrated for Version 8
Co
Ghana: The black
star that Locks an
African Tiger
James Gichuki
Background
Located in the west coast of Africa land 239, 000km sq.
1957-1966-Embarked on a very ambitious development drive.
Is a member of ECOWAS.
ECOWAS Second biggest economy after Nigeria
Macroeconomic Policy Analysis
in Low Income Countries
Lecture 2:
Real Sector:
Ouput and Prices
By Dr. Mark Ellyne
REAL
Output
EXTERNAL
OUTPUT
ABSORBTIO
N
Prices
Foreign Inflows
Trade Flows
PRICE
S
Foreign
Reserves
Foreign Prices
DEMAND
-NCP
NFA
MONETARY
E
ECO5074S
Cost Benefit Analysis
Beatrice Conradie
[email protected] or directly after the lecture
The benefit cost principle says we should install a guardrail
on a dangerous stretch of mountain road if the dollar cost of
doing so is less than t
Chapter 21
Inflation and Unemployment: The Phillips
Curve
Another way of studying inflation cycles:
Focus on relationship & S/R trade-of between inflation and
unemployment
Phillips curve
Why?
We want to study changes in expected and actual inflation
ra
