Climate Change
and Extreme Weather
Dr. Wen Zhou
School of Energy and Environment
Chapter 2 : Our Changing climate history
Part 2. Natural cause of climate change
Global Air Circulation
Look at these four maps: What patterns do you see?
Global Air Circulat
Probability in Action: From the Unfinished Game to the Modern World
GE 2326

Spring 2016
InClass Exercise
Discussion
Exercise 6
GE2326 Dr. Antoni Chan
1
Q61: Alice is studying whether Android and iPhone users stay up
late playing games. After a survey, she compiled the following joint
probability table. Who is more likely to go to bed late,
Probability in Action: From the Unfinished Game to the Modern World
GE 2326

Spring 2016
InClass Exercise Answers
Lecture 3
GE2326 Dr. Antoni Chan
1
Q31: Explain why redundant systems (e.g., engines)
reduce the probability of complete failure, but also
increase the probability that at least one system will fail.
The probability of complete
Probability in Action: From the Unfinished Game to the Modern World
GE 2326

Spring 2016
InClass Exercise Answers
Lecture 5
GE2326 Dr. Antoni Chan
1
Q51: The utility function "log(wealth)" has diminishing
utility for larger amounts of wealth, which can model the
behavior of a riskaverse person. What does the shape of
a utility function of
Probability in Action: From the Unfinished Game to the Modern World
GE 2326

Spring 2016
InClass Exercise Answers
Lecture 4
GE2326 Dr. Antoni Chan
1
Q41: The probability of sneezing in any 2 second period
is 1/40,000. Suppose that Apple has released an iPhone
app that detects if a user has sneezed and then says
"Gesundheit". The app has a 0
Probability in Action: From the Unfinished Game to the Modern World
GE 2326

Spring 2016
InClass Exercise Answers
Lecture 2
GE2326 Dr. Antoni Chan
1
Q21: Pacioli's solution was to divide the pot according
to the current state of play. For example if Alice has 4
points and Bob has 2 points, then the pot is split 4:2.
Why is this solution fla
Probability in Action: From the Unfinished Game to the Modern World
GE 2326

Spring 2016
Into the Everyday World:
Utility and Statistics
Lecture 5
GE2326 Dr. Antoni Chan
1
Objectives
Describe Pascals Wager
Explain expected utility and how it resolves the St.
Petersburg Paradox
Understand the difference between theoretical
probability and e
Probability in Action: From the Unfinished Game to the Modern World
GE 2326

Spring 2016
Conditional Probability
Including Partial Information
Lecture 6
GE2326 Dr. Antoni Chan
1
Objectives
Define joint probability of two events
Understand joint probability tables and
marginalization.
Explain the concept of conditional probability and
how
Probability in Action: From the Unfinished Game to the Modern World
GE 2326

Spring 2016
GE2326
Tutorial 3
GE2326  Tutorial 3
Space Shuttle
In this tutorial, you may work in groups of 23 students.
Introduction
"Anyone who sits on top of the largest hydrogenoxygen fueled system in the
world; knowing they're going to light the bottoman
GE2326  Group Project  Marking Scheme
Project proposal (10 marks)
The proposal should include information about the following items:
Project scope and motivation (What is the purpose? What are the questions to be answered?)
Data collection (Wh
Climate Change and Extreme Weather
Dr. Wen Zhou
School of Energy and Environment
Chapter 1 : Weather & Severe Weather in our lives
What is in the air?
Temperature, Pressure,Wind
Clouds & Precipitation
Chapter 2 : Our Changing climate history
Part 1. Hi
Climate Change
and Extreme Weather
Dr. Wen Zhou
School of Energy and Environment
Earthquake Conceptest
If the San Andreas fault moves 500 cm per big
earthquake, and fault movement is equivalent to
plate motion (2.5 cm/yr):
How many years of plate motions
Climate Change
and Extreme Weather
Chapter 2 : Our Changing climate history
Part 2. Natural cause of climate change
The singlecell model for general atmospheric circulation:
A) works only in the northern hemisphere.
B) demonstrates the effect of thermall
Climate Change
and Extreme Weather
Dr. Wen Zhou
School of Energy and Environment
True or False
The oceans were mostly in place by 4 billion years ago. but
no ocean basin is older than about 200 million years old.
2. The ocean salinity is only influenced b
Climate Change
and Extreme Weather
Dr. Wen Zhou
School of Energy and Environment
El Nio
Some facts:
El Nio means "the Christ Child".
It occurs when the warm waters of the western Pacific
extend far to the east, and bathe the coast of central South
America
% MODULE 2:
CONNECTING WITH
PEOPLE
People in Groups
Connecting with People
We are related to our family, friends. .
We are "connecting" with people we know
We realize that we are related to them
Why do we need to connect with other people?
we are social
T MODULE 2:
CONNECTING WITH
PEOPLE
Cultural Mind
Definition of Culture
I Set of attitudes, values, beliefs, and
behaviors shared by a group of people,
communicated from one generation to the next
via language or some other means of
communication (Ba
Probability in Action: From the Unfinished Game to the Modern World
GE 2326

Spring 2016
GE2326
Tutorial 4
GE2326  Tutorial 4
TwoUp
In this tutorial, you may work in groups of 23 students.
Introduction
Twoup is a traditional Australian gambling game, which was played by Australia's soldiers
since the 1800s. Indeed, it is legal to pl
Probability in Action: From the Unfinished Game to the Modern World
GE 2326

Spring 2016
GE2326
Tutorial 5
GE2326  Tutorial 5
Testing Dice
In this tutorial, you may work in groups of 23 students.
Introduction
You are the owner of a casino and you just received a shipment
of 6sided dice from a new supplier. The supplier says that the
Probability in Action: From the Unfinished Game to the Modern World
GE 2326

Spring 2016
CORRESPONDENCE ON THE PROBLEM OF POINTS
BLAISE PASCAL AND PIERRE FERMAT
OEUVRES DE FERMAT VOLUME 2, PP. 288314, 1894
The following letters are printed in the Oeuvres de Fermat, Volume II, pp. 288314, [1]
which has been used as source. They also may be fou
Probability in Action: From the Unfinished Game to the Modern World
GE 2326

Spring 2016
Bayesian Data Analysis,
Prediction, and Decision Making
Lecture 9
GE2326 Dr. Antoni Chan
1
Objectives
Explain how Bayesian statistics is used to analyze
medical data
examples: lung cancer and heart disease
Discuss Bayesian methods for prediction
rare
Probability in Action: From the Unfinished Game to the Modern World
GE 2326

Spring 2016
Out of the Gaming Room:
Population Statistics and
Expectation
Lecture 4
GE2326 Dr. Antoni Chan
1
Objectives
Define probability over populations and how it is
calculated.
Explain the False Positive Paradox and its examples in
the real world.
Describe ea
Probability in Action: From the Unfinished Game to the Modern World
GE 2326

Spring 2016
Subjective Probability
Measuring Beliefs
Lecture 8
GE2326 Dr. Antoni Chan
1
Objectives
Define subjective probability as a measure of belief.
Explain why subjective probability was abandoned.
Discuss practical applications of using inverse
probability
Probability in Action: From the Unfinished Game to the Modern World
GE 2326

Spring 2016
Probability in Action:
From the Unfinished Game
to the Modern World
GE2326 Sem B, 2015/16
GE2326 Dr. Antoni Chan
1
Course General Info
Teaching Team
Dr. Antoni CHAN
[email protected], Office: AC1Y6414
Office hours: 23pm, Tuesdays
TAs: LI Zhenhua,
Probability in Action: From the Unfinished Game to the Modern World
GE 2326

Spring 2016
Problem of the Points:
The Unfinished Game
GE2326
Lecture 2
GE2326 Dr. Antoni Chan
1
Objectives
Understand the Problem of the Points and explain
the solution.
Explain the impact of early work on probability on
society.
GE2326 Dr. Antoni Chan
2
Problem o
Probability in Action: From the Unfinished Game to the Modern World
GE 2326

Spring 2016
Conditional Probability
Including Partial Information
Lecture 6
GE2326 Dr. Antoni Chan
1
Objectives
Define joint probability of two events
Understand joint probability tables and
marginalization.
Explain the concept of conditional probability and
how
Probability in Action: From the Unfinished Game to the Modern World
GE 2326

Spring 2016
Into the Everyday World:
Utility and Statistics
Lecture 5
GE2326 Dr. Antoni Chan
1
Objectives
Describe Pascals Wager
Explain expected utility and how it resolves the St.
Petersburg Paradox
Understand the difference between theoretical
probability and e
Probability in Action: From the Unfinished Game to the Modern World
GE 2326

Spring 2016
GE 2326 Schedule (2016B  updated)
Wk Lecture Topic
1
Lec 1: Introduction
Frequentist Probability (Weeks 26)
2
Lec 2: Problem of the points
3
Lec 3: Probability origins
4
Lec 4: Out of the gaming room
5
Lec 5: Probability in the everyday world
6
Quiz 1 (