1
3
Reliability Theory
INSE 6320 - Week 6
Let T be a random variable representing the failure time or lifetime of a
physical system. For this system, the probability that it will fail by time t is:
Risk Analysis for Information and Systems Engineering
t
F

2
System Reliability Concepts
The analysis of the reliability of a system must be based on precisely defined
concepts. Since it is readily accepted that a population of supposedly identical
systems, operating under similar conditions, fall at different po

Constant and Decreasing Risk-Aversion
Constant Risk-Aversion
The risk premium for a gamble does not depend on the initial wealth held,
Can be represented using an exponential utility function
You have $x in your pocket, and you are facing a bet: 1) win $1

2
Introducing Bayesian Networks
2.1
Introduction
Having presented both theoretical and practical reasons for artificial intelligence to
use probabilistic reasoning, we now introduce the key computer technology for dealing with probabilities in AI, namely

Risk Analysis and Monte Carlo Simulation
So you're new to the idea of risk analysis, and you've got a lot of questions. What is risk? What
do we mean by a "model?" What exactly is Monte Carlo simulation? Is anyone in your industry
using this technique? Th

604
Chapter 13
Decision Analysis
We begin the study of decision analysis by considering problems that involve reasonably few decision alternatives and reasonably few possible future events. Influence diagrams and payoff tables are introduced to provide a

Risk Aversion
E
xpected value as a criterion for making decisions makes sense provided that
the stakes at risk in the decision are small enough to \play the long run averages."
The range of decisions for which this is true covers many situations of practi

1
Mean of a Random Variable
3
INSE 6320 - Week 3
Risk Analysis for Information and Systems Engineering
Descriptive Statistics
Discrete Probability Distributions
Continuous Probability Distributions
Stochastic Processes
The relationship for determinin

1
3
Population at risk
INSE 6320 - Week 4
Risk Analysis for Information and Systems Engineering
Individual Risk
Individual risk is the risk of fatality or injury to any identifiable (named)
individual who lives within the zone impacted by a hazard, or fol

1
3
What is INSE 6320?
INSE 6320 - Week 1
INSE 6320 is an Information and Systems Engineering course
Risk Analysis for Information and Systems Engineering
You will learn how to:
Assess risk for systems engineering using probability theory and statistic

1
3
Risk
INSE 6320 - Week 2
Human Factors
Risk Analysis for Information and Systems Engineering
Uncertainty in computing risk is unavoidable
Reactions to risk based on emotion, rather than scientific evidence.
When people become outraged, they may overre

1
3
Expected Values of Returns for Assets A and B
INSE 6320 - Week 12
Risk Analysis for Information and Systems Engineering
Risk Measurement and Regulations
Final Exam Review
Dr. A. Ben Hamza
Concordia University
2
Risk of a Single Asset: Risk Measureme

1
3
Uncertainty Modeling
INSE 6320 - Week 11
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future."
- Yogi Berra.
Risk Analysis for Information and Systems Engineering
Combined Cost
Modeling and Cost
Driver Uncertainty
Uncertainty Analysis
Monte

1
3
CAL Condos Revisited
INSE 6320 - Week 9
Risk Analysis for Information and Systems Engineering
Sensitivity Analysis
Bayesian Belief Networks
A developer must decide how large a luxury condominium complex to build
small, medium, or large. The profitab

1
INSE 6320 - Week 10
Risk utility or risk tolerance is the amount of satisfaction or pleasure received from a
Risk Analysis for Information and Systems Engineering
Risk Utility
Project Risk Management
Dr. A. Ben Hamza
3
Risk Utility
potential payoff
A

1
3
How to generate F-N curves
INSE 6320 - Week 5
Risk Analysis for Information and Systems Engineering
F-N Curves
Fault Trees
Event Trees
Dr. A. Ben Hamza
The frequency of events which causes at least N fatalities is plotted
against the number N on lo

3/15/2016
Risk
Assessment Lab
City Medical Partners
Case Study
City Medial Partners
Background Info:
City Medical Partners is one of the foremost medical research
institution which provides the community with two major teaching
hospitals, a cancer treatme