Topic 4 Decision analysis value of information
In the previous topic we examined rational techniques of decision analysis, given an
existing information set. It is possible for a DM, prior to making a decision, to
extend the information set available. In
Topic 2 Statistical decision making and quality control
Topic 2 Statistical decision making and quality
control
Essential reading
Textbook
Chapter 15.
Objectives
At the end of this topic, you should be able to:
discuss the importance of total quality mana
Topic 9
Linear programming
In this topic, we continue with our profit planning, and product mix, decisions
which were introduced earlier. We extend the coverage of CVP analysis by
introducing the notion of scarce resources. With only one scarce resource w
Topic 1 Probability concepts and distributions
Essential reading
Textbook
2-7)
Chapter 2, pp. 41-47, 51-55, 58-64, 72-74 (Solved problems excluding
Objectives
At the end of this topic, you should be able to:
demonstrate an understanding of the nature of p
Topic 7 Forecasting techniques
Introduction
In this topic, we are concerned with the use of various forecasting techniques and
when each may be applicable.
To forecast means to estimate or calculate in advance. It often includes the notion
of predicting e
Topic 11 Project management
Most organisations will, from time to time, take on large and complex projects.
For example, the NSW Government tackled the task of hosting the 2000 Olympic
Games. Such an endeavour required the investment of hundreds of millio
Topic 1 Probability concepts and distributions
Fundamental concepts of probability
The idea of risk and probability is part of our everyday lives:
There is a 30% change of rain in Sydney today.
Australia are favoured 2 to 1 over England in the next cricke
Topic 10 Inventory control
Our concern in this topic is with the timing of the placement of orders for finished
goods or for raw materials, or of set-ups for manufacturing runs, and the
determination of the optimum quantities which should be purchased or
Topic 6 Correlation and regression analysis
In this topic, we are concerned firstly with the difference between correlation
analysis and regression analysis.
Regression analysis is demonstrated in the context of cost estimation. We are
concerned with esti
Topic 8
Cost-volume-profit analysis
In this topic we look at short term profit planning in the form of cost-volumeprofit (CVP) analysis. CVP analysis is concerned with the way in which profits
respond to changes in volume, or changes in selling prices or
Topic 2 Statistical decision making and quality
control
Introduction to quality
Many organisations throughout the world view total quality management (TQM) as
one of the most important success factors. TQM reduces costs and increases customer
satisfaction
Topic 5
Simulation for complex decisions
In the two previous topics we saw how a decision could be analysed using a
payoff matrix or a decision tree. A payoff matrix is useful for fairly simple
problems, where there is a small number of actions and states
Topic 3
Decision analysis A rational approach
Decisions are always future oriented. People make decisions about what to do in the
future, even if it is only seconds from now. Since no one can accurately predict the
future (especially the distant future) t
Question 1 (a)
1. Head on first toss : p(H) = = 0.5
2. Tail on second given first was a head: P(T|H) = p(T) = = 0.5
3. Two Tails : P(TT) = P(T) X P(T) = 0.5 X 0.5 = 0.25
4. P(TH) = P(T) X P(H) = 0.5 X 0.5 = 0.25
P (HT) = P(H) X P(T) = 0.5 X 0.5 = 0.25
P (