STAT 430 Homework 2
Due 2pm on September 27, 2016
The report of this homework should be a well-organized file including your SAS code, results and
interpretation. For each question, you may have a short paragraph of narrative to explain the
results and ma
Business Statistics
Bob Carroll
BET?
Thinking like a Bayesian
Julia Galef outlines the most important
principles of thinking like a Bayesian.
Video byJulia Galef
March 31, 2016
3+ minutes
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
Understand the language of probability
includ
Business Statistics
BSAD 210
Bob Carroll
Learning Objectives
Interpret the F-Distribution.
Discuss one-way ANOVA.
Conduct and interpret one-way ANOVA.
Skip Section 13.4, Tests of two variances.
12-2
Against All Odds Video
12 minutes on ANOVA
ANOVA
ANOVA
Business Statistics
BSAD 210
Bob Carroll
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
Classify Hypothesis Tests by type.
Conduct test where the standard deviation is unknown.
Conduct and Interpret Hypothesis Tests for 2 means where the
standard deviation is known.
Conduct and Int
Business Statistics
Bob Carroll
Learning Objectives
Differentiate Type I and Type II Errors
Describe Hypothesis Testing
Conduct a test for the population mean where
the standard deviation is known.
Conduct a test for the population mean where
the stan
BsAd 210 Business
Statistics
Bob Carroll
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
Discuss the basic ideas of linear regression and
correlation.
Create and interpret a line of best fit.
Calculate and interpret the correlation coefficient.
Calculate and interpret outliers.
Business Statistics
Bob Carroll
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
Explain the Central Limit Theorem.
Classify variables by the probability distribution
that best models their behavior.
Apply the CLT to means and sums.
8-2
25 Coin Tosses: 64% Heads
What happens with mor
Business Statistics
Bob Carroll
The Game Theorists explains Plinko
Probabilities
The Game Theorists is a
video blog about games.
binomial calculation.
from 5 minutes to 8:33
minutes
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
Understand Discrete probability functions.
Calcula
Business Statistics
Bob Carroll
Video: Measurement Err
or
95 seconds
Dr. Impey explains how errors led to the Gaussian
model (the Normal) in the well-defined field of
astronomy.
Business, in contrast, is trying to measure a moving
target: shifting dema
Business Statistics
Bob Carroll
Learning Objectives
Recognize and understand continuous
probability density functions.
Recognize the uniform distribution and apply
it.
Recognize the exponential distribution and
apply it.
7-2
Continuous vs. Discrete?
Ro
Business Statistics
Bob Carroll
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
Calculate and interpret confidence intervals for
a population mean and proportion.
Interpret the Students t probability distribution
as sample size changes.
Discriminate in the use of the Normal and
Stud
Business Statistics
Bob Carroll
Motley Fool Interview
Mauboussin of Credit Suisse
Good investing requires a few basic things -accounting, understanding core things about business
- but statistics, I think, is incredibly helpful.
And by the way, it's no
Business Statistics
Bob Carroll
Without data,
you are just
another
person with an
opinion.
Wind Statistics
Wind is uncertain,
but sailors manage.
This course will focus
on managing
uncertain business.
Averages are useful but so are the ranges or gusts.
Business Statistics
Bob Carroll
Objectives
Random processes
Identifying trends
Seasonal patterns
Looking for autocorrelation
Moving Averages
Exponential Smoothing
Introduction
Measurements of a variable taken at regular intervals
over time form a time se
Business Statistics
Bob Carroll
Learning Objectives
Value added through regression!
Understanding multiple regression.
Interpreting F-tests.
Interpreting the R2 of the regression.
Interpreting the t-statistics of the coefficients.
Checking the required co
Range names used:
NTickets
=Model!$B$6
PNoShow
=Model!$B$4
Airline Overbooking
Number of seats
Probability of no-show
Number of tickets issued
Required probabilities
More than 205
show up
More than 200 At least 195 seats At least 190 seats
show up
filled
Problem #1 (5 points)
You are the manager of a large warehouse/fulfillment center employing more than a hundred
workers. The mean number of orders that have to be fulfilled each day follows a Normal distribution
with a mean of 5,000 orders per day, and a
Problem 1 (10 points)
A consumer products firm has recently introduced a new brand. The firm would like to
estimate the proportion of people in its target market segment who are aware of the new brand.
As part of a larger market research study, it was fou
Problem #1 (10 points)
The term churn is very important to managers in the cellular phone business. Churning occurs when a
customer cancels services with one company and enters into a new contract with another company.
Obviously, managers want to minimize
Decisions
Pay for expedited set-up costs (Y/N)?
Cancel before setting up?
Outcomes
Exp. Set-Up Fee
Cancel show prior to set-up
Rainy
Cloudy
Sunny
Payoffs
Probabilities
Given that the Actual Weather is
(10,000)
(10,000)
(150,000) Rain(RF)
(50,000) Clouds(C
The carnival comes to town (20 points)
A traveling carnival, that works the small towns in the Midwest, is scheduled to appear in one of
those towns. The profits that will be obtained depend heavily upon the weather. In particular, if
the weather is rainy