Motivating Example: Locating an EMT Station
Solution Method
ISYE 4600/6610
Multi-Objective Optimization: Efficient Solutions
and Frontier
Thomas C. Sharkey
October 24, 2014
Sharkey
MOO - Efficient
Motivating Example: Locating an EMT Station
Solution Metho
Discussing Steady-State Probabilities
Calculating and Applying Steady-State Probabilities
A Tougher Example to Model
ISYE 4600/6610
Markov Chains: Steady-State Probabilities
Thomas C. Sharkey
November 7, 2014
Sharkey
MC - Steady State Probs
Discussing Ste
A Motivating Example: Planning Your Week
Solution Approaches
Another Application
ISYE 4600/6610
Multi-Objective Optimization: Goal Programming
Thomas C. Sharkey
October 21, 2014
Sharkey
MOO - Goal
A Motivating Example: Planning Your Week
Solution Approach
A Small Example
Mathematical Formulation and Definitions
Computing n-step Transition Probabilities
ISYE 4600/6610
Markov Chains: Introduction and Definitions
Thomas C. Sharkey
November 7, 2014
Sharkey
MC - Introduction
A Small Example
Mathematical Formula
First Passage Times
Probabilities of Absorbtion
ISYE 4600/6610
Markov Chains: First Passage Times and
Absorbtion Probabilities
Thomas C. Sharkey
November 18, 2014
Sharkey
MC - Assorted Analysis
First Passage Times
Probabilities of Absorbtion
A Common Them
Some Motivating Applications
A Framework and Solution Method for MDPs
An Example: Machine Replacement
ISYE 4600/6610
Markov Chains: Markov Decision Processes
Thomas C. Sharkey
November 18, 2014
Sharkey
MC - MDP
Some Motivating Applications
A Framework and
ISYE 4280
Decision-Focused Systems Engineering
Sessions 7 - 8:
Making Choices
Chapter 4 of Making Hard Decisions, by Clemen and Reilly
Identify Problem
Identify Objectives
Chapters 2 and 3
Identify Alternatives
Decompose and Model Problem:
1. Structure
2.
ISYE 4280
Decision-Focused Systems Engineering
Sessions 13 and 14:
Theoretical Probability Models
Using Data
Reminders
HW #4 is due on Friday
Keep a copy to study from
Midterm is Friday, October 17 in class
Groups for final project due Friday, Oct 24
ISYE 4280
Decision-Focused Systems Engineering
Sessions 9 10:
Sensitivity Analysis
Chapter 5 of Making Hard Decisions, by Clemen and Reilly
Identify Problem
Identify Objectives
Chapters 2 and 3
Identify Alternatives
Decompose and Model Problem:
1. Structu
ISYE 4280
Decision-Focused Systems Engineering
Sessions 11-12:
Probability Basics
Chapter 7 of Making Hard Decisions, by Clemen and Reilly
Introduction
Let A be an uncertain event with possible
outcomes A1, A2, An
A = Flipping a coin
A1 = Head, A2 = Tai
ISYE 4280
Decision-Focused Systems Engineering
Sessions 17 - 18:
Value of Information
Chapter 12 of Making Hard Decisions, by Clemen and Reilly
Value of Information
Decision-makers who face uncertainty often
attempt to gather information prior to making
ISYE 4280
Decision-Focused Systems Engineering
Sessions 4 - 6:
Structuring Decisions
Chapters 2 and 3 of Making Hard Decisions, by Clemen and Reilly
Software Tutorial:
Using PrecisionTree to Create
Decision Trees and Influence
Diagrams
Research and Develo
ISYE 4280
Decision-Focused Systems Engineering
Sessions 7 - 8:
Making Choices
Chapter 4 of Making Hard Decisions, by Clemen and Reilly
Software Tutorial and
Application
Using PrecisionTree
Example:
Executives of the general products company (GPC) have t
ISYE 4280
Decision-Focused Systems Engineering
Sessions 25 - 27:
System Effectiveness and Reliability
System Effectiveness
A system is an integrated set of elements
that accomplish a defined objective
Elements include products (hardware,
software), proc
ISYE 4280
Decision-Focused Systems Engineering
Sessions 19 and 20:
Risk Attitudes
Chapter 14 of Making Hard Decisions, by Clemen and Reilly
Modeling Preferences
Next few chapters discuss how we can
model a decision-makers preferences:
Risk attitudes
Ut
ISYE 4280
Decision-Focused Systems Engineering
Session 12:
Subjective Probability
Chapter 8 of Making Hard Decisions, by Clemen and Reilly
Probability Estimates
Decision models often require estimates
of probabilities as an input
We will consider three
ISYE 4280
Decision Focused Systems Engineering
Session 28:
Review for Final Exam
Final Exam
Components of final grade:
Final Exam 30%
Midterm Exam 20%
Homework 25%
Final Project 20%
Final Exam
Final exam is cumulative => covers all
course material
ISYE 4280
Decision-Focused Systems Engineering
Session 24:
Arrow Cosmetics Case
Arrow Cosmetics
As a brand manager at Arrow Cosmetics, you
are responsible for Silkskin body lotion
Silkskins current annual profit is $2.1 million
Your R&D department has
ISYE 4280
Decision-Focused Systems Engineering
Sessions 4 - 6:
Structuring Decisions
Chapters 2 and 3 of Making Hard Decisions, by Clemen and Reilly
Identify Problem
Identify Objectives
Chapters 2 and 3
Identify Alternatives
Decompose and Model Problem:
1
ISYE 4280
Decision-Focused Systems Engineering
Session 1:
Introduction to Course
Contact Information
Jennifer K. Ryan, Associate Professor, Dept of
Industrial and Systems Engineering
Office: CII 5217
Phone: 276-6486
Email: ryanj6@rpi.edu
Office Hours
ISYE 4280
Decision-Focused Systems Engineering
Sessions 21 - 23:
Conflicting Objectives
Chapter 16 of Making Hard Decisions, by Clemen and Reilly
Modeling Preferences
Next few chapters discuss how we can
model a decision-makers preferences:
Risk Attitud
ISYE-4530 Information Systems
Fall 2015
Class Hours:
Mondays and Thursdays, 2:00 PM - 3:20 PM
Instructor:
Cheng Hsu
Professor of Industrial and Systems Engineering
CII 5123, hsuc@rpi.edu
Office Hours:
Mondays and Thursdays 3:30 4:30 p.m., other times by
e
ISYE 4280
Decision-Focused Systems Engineering
Session 2:
Introduction to Systems Engineering
Chapters 1 and 2 of Decision-Making in Systems Engineering and
Management, edited by Parnell, Driscoll and Henderson
Definition of System
A system is set of int
ISYE 4280
Decision Focused Systems Engineering
Session 14:
Review for Midterm Exam
Reminders
HW #4 is due (keep a copy)
Solution to HW #4 will be posted this weekend
Midterm is Friday, October 17 in class
Groups for final project due Friday, Oct 24
F
ISYE 4280
Decision-Focused Systems Engineering
Session 3:
Introduction to Decision Analysis
Chapter 1 of Making Hard Decisions, by Clemen and Reilly
Making Hard Decisions
Decision-making
Cognitive process of reaching a decision
Occasionally need to mak
Tyler Gendron
661082631
Reading 1 Summary
The reading is an outline of how to figure out the correct supply chain strategy based on
your product. The first step in this process is to consider the demand for the product being
supplied. In order to consider
Tyler Gendron
661082631
Hamptonshire Case
1.
a. In this situation, Sheen should stock the optimal stocking quantity which is 584
newspapers and the expected profit at this stocking quantity is $331.44.
Cu
1
)
b. Q=+ (
Cu +C O
.8
Q=500+ 1 (
)(100)
.8+.2
Q=
Incentive Alignment Exercise - Updated
You are a retailer. You buy coffee tables at a wholesale price of $30 and sell it for $40. It
costs your supplier $20 to make it. Unsold items will be marked down and sold at $15.
Demand is normally distributed with
Tyler Gendron
661082631
Barilla Case
The underlying causes of the difficulties that the JITD program was created to solve are
the bullwhip effect and stock out issues that strain their manufacturing and logistics operations.
The Just-in-Time distribution
Tyler Gendron
661082631
Dell Case
In order to critically assess Dells competitive position in the PC market I will use a
SWOT analysis approach to analyze its internal strengths and weaknesses and its external
opportunities and threats. Dell has a lot of