MSE 298: Damage Tolerance, Durability and
Repair of Composites
Lecture 3A-1: Fracture Resistance, Notch Strength and
Delamination Analysis
Prof. Jenn-Ming Yang
Department of Materials Science and Engineering
University of California
310-825-2758
[email protected]
Risk Analysis
for
Engineers and Scientists
MSE-298, Winter 2017
Module 14
Simulation Based Risk Analysis
Instructor: Prof. Ali Mosleh
[email protected]
GENERALIZED
CONCEPT OF SYSTEM EVOLUTION
x
(xo, ro)
Safety Boundary
r
2
Risk Analysis for Engineers and Sc
Overview of PRA for Nuclear
Energy Plants
Donald Wakefield
ABSG Consulting
Irvine, CA
1
The Triplet Definition of Risk
Answers to: (1) What Can Go Wrong?
(2) What Is the Frequency?
(3) What Is the Damage?
R Risk = cfw_< Si, Fi, Di >
2
What Is the Form of
Risk Analysis for Engineers and Scientists
Winter 2017
Problem Set #3
Problem 1
A system is made of 3 identical components X, Y, and Z. The system fails if any two of
the three components fail.
a) Develop the Reliability Block Diagram of the system
b) Dev
Risk Analysis
for
Engineers and Scientists
MSE-298, Winter 2017
Module 13
Uncertainty Analysis
Instructor: Prof. Ali Mosleh
[email protected]
SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY
Inherent Randomness (variability) in physical
processes being modeled
Cannot apply determi
Risk Analysis for Engineers and Scientists
Winter 2017
Problem Set #2 Solution
1. A binary source generates digits 1 and 0 randomly with probabilities 0.6 and 0.4,
respectively.
a. What is the probability that two 1s and three 0s occur in a five-digit seq
Risk Analysis
for
Engineers and Scientists
MSE-298 Winter 2017
Module 9
Causal Modeling with
Bayesian Belief Networks
Instructor: Prof. Ali Mosleh
[email protected]
Bayesian Belief Network (BBN)
A marriage of probability theory and graph
theory
Also calle
MSE 298: Damage Tolerance, Durability and
Repair of Composites
Lecture 7A-1: Fatigue Behavior and Fatigue Life Prediction
Prof. Jenn-Ming Yang
Department of Materials Science and Engineering
University of California
310-825-2758
[email protected]
MSE298
MSE 298: Damage Tolerance, Durability and
Repair of Composites
Lecture 9B-1: Damage Tolerance: Certification and Design
Prof. Jenn-Ming Yang
Department of Materials Science and Engineering
University of California
310-825-2758
[email protected]
Damage T
MSE 298: Damage Tolerance, Durability and
Repair of Composites
Lecture 6A-1: Fatigue Behavior and Fatigue Life Prediction
Prof. Jenn-Ming Yang
Department of Materials Science and Engineering
University of California
310-825-2758
[email protected]
MSE298
MSE 298: Damage Tolerance, Durability and
Repair of Composites
Lecture 7B-1: Environmental Effects and Long term
Durability
Prof. Jenn-Ming Yang
Department of Materials Science and Engineering
University of California
310-825-2758
[email protected]
Dama
MSE 298: Damage Tolerance, Durability and
Repair of Composites
Lecture 1A-1: Course Overview and Overview on Damage
Tolerance and Durability of Composites
Prof. Jenn-Ming Yang
Department of Materials Science and Engineering
University of California
310-82
MSE 298: Damage Tolerance, Durability and
Repair of Composites
Lecture 8B-1: Environmental Effects and Long term
Durability
Prof. Jenn-Ming Yang
Department of Materials Science and Engineering
University of California
310-825-2758
[email protected]
Dama
MSE298: Damage Tolerance, Durability and
Repair of Composite Structures
Lecture 2A-1: Strength and Failure Analysis of
Undamaged Composites
Prof. Jenn-Ming Yang
Department of Materials Science and Engineering
University of California
310-825-2758
[email protected]
MSE298: Damage Tolerance, Durability and
Repair of Composites
Lecture 4A-1: Impact Behavior and Impact
Damage Tolerance
Prof. Jenn-Ming Yang
Department of Materials Science and Engineering
University of California
310-825-2758
[email protected]
UCLA Com
MSE 298: Damage Tolerance, Durability and
Repair of Composites
Lecture 5A: Guest Lecture on Failure Analysis of Composite
Structures, and Modeling Composites With Nastran
Prof. Jenn-Ming Yang
Department of Materials Science and Engineering
University of C
Risk Analysis for Engineers and Scientists
Winter 2017
Problem Set #7 Solution Steps
Since the data center is expected to start operation on January 1, 2017:
1. By extrapolating the number of flights from recent history data, we can expect the
number of f
Risk Analysis for Engineers and Scientists
Winter 2017
Problem Set # 4 Solution
Problem 1
(a) The corresponding Bayesian network is as follows:
S
B
A
A
(b) We want to find the marginal (i.e., unconditional) probability that the break
system is in a degrad
Risk Analysis for Engineers and Scientists
Winter 2017
HW Set 5
In support of a decision on choosing the mode of travel between two cities by car, train,
or air, perform a risk assessment of each mode, considering the following factors:
1. Options are you
Risk Analysis for Engineers and Scientists
Winter 2017
Problem Set # 5
Solution Steps
(1) The essence of this problem is that we need to develop a risk model for each
transportation mode, calculate the risk and then compare the results for
comparable end
Risk Analysis for Engineers and Scientists
Spring 2017
Problem Set # 7
A new data center for the banking sector is being planned at a site near the Investors City
Airport (ICA). The facility covers an area of approximately 0.25 square miles. The site
coor
Risk Analysis for Engineers and Scientists
Winter 2017
Problem Set # 4
Problem 1
For mining trucks, the health state of the break system depends on the sediments reading.
Assume that both variables are Boolean, i.e., sediments reading can have the followi
Risk Analysis
for
Engineers and Scientists
MSE-298, Winter 2017
Module 7
Risk Scenarios Identification
Instructor: Prof. Ali Mosleh
[email protected]
Three Questions of Risk Analysis
1. What can go wrong?
2. What are the consequences?
3. How frequently can
Risk Analysis
for
Engineers and Scientists
MSE-298, Winter 2017
Module 6
Elements of Model-based Risk Analysis
Instructor: Prof. Ali Mosleh
[email protected]
Risk
Risk is usually associated with the uncertainty
and undesirability of a potential situation o
Risk Analysis for Engineers and Scientists
Winter 2016
Problem Set #3 Solution
Problem 1 Solution
Part (a) : System Reliability Block Diagram
Part (b) : System failure Fault Tree : failure of any two component fails the system
(bar on symbol indicate fail
Risk Analysis
for
Engineers and Scientists
MSE-298, Winter 2017
Module 15
A Hybrid Methodology for Modeling
Risk of Adverse Events in Complex
Healthcare Settings
Instructor: Prof. Ali Mosleh
[email protected]
Background
Adverse events/errors remain a major
Risk Analysis
for
Engineers and Scientists
MSE-298, Winter 2017
Module 17
Human Reliability Analysis
Instructor: Prof. Ali Mosleh
[email protected]
SIGNIFICANCE OF HUMAN ERROR
A significant factor in risk and reliability for a number
of industries; Power,
Risk Analysis for Engineers and Scientists
Winter 2017
Problem Set #1 Solution
are independent events with Pcfw_ X =0.28 and
~
~
P cfw_Y =0.41 . Find (a) P cfw_~
X , (b) P cfw_ X Y , (c) P cfw_Y , (d) P cfw_ X Y , (e)
~
P cfw_ X Y and (f) P cfw_~
X Y
Risk Assessment for Engineers & Scientists
Homework 6 Solution
Possible scenarios (oil spill or not) in tankers journey can be represented through the
following event tree:
Tanker in Channel
High Tide?
Navigation System OK?
Hull Strikes Channel?
Severe Da
Risk Analysis for Engineers and Scientists
Winter 2017
Problem Set # 6
An oil tanker must pass through the same relatively narrow channel on each of its
journeys, once a month on the average. The channel dimensions are shown in the
following top and cross
Risk Analysis
for
Engineers and Scientists
MSE-298, Winter 2017
Module 8- Part A
Binary Causal Logic Models
Instructor: Prof. Ali Mosleh
[email protected]
Elements of a Scenario-Based PRA
Model Building
Objectives
Definition
System
Familiarization
Initiatin
Risk Analysis
for
Engineers and Scientists
MSE-298, Winter 2017
Module 8- Part B
Quantification of Binary Causal
Logic Models
Instructor: Prof. Ali Mosleh
[email protected]
RBD for Series Configurations
R1
R2
Two elements in series
Independent elements
RT
Risk Analysis
for
Engineers and Scientists
MSE-298, Winter 2016
Module 10
Causal Logic Model Integration
Instructor: Prof. Ali Mosleh
[email protected]
Elements of a Scenario-Based Risk Analysis
Objectives
Definition
System
Familiarization
Initiating
Events
Risk Analysis
for
Engineers and Scientists
MSE-298, Spring 2015
Module 16
Risk and Safety Assessment and Management of
Aviation Systems:
Methodology, Software, and Example Application
Instructor: Prof. Ali Mosleh
[email protected]
Questions
What is the curr