Question 1
0 out of 1 points
A
corporate
executive officer is
attempting
to
arrange a meeting
of his four vice
presidents
for
tomorrow morning.
He believes that
each of these four
busy persons,
independentlyofthe
others, hasabout a
70% chance of
beingable
1) The French mathematician Blaise Pascal solved this problem for Chevalier
de Mere when the latter suspected that a popular gambling game did not offer
fair odds. The letter containing this solution (dated 1654) is often traced as
the foundation of moder
1) Manu Ginobili of San Antonio Spurs scores a free throw with probability
0.84. In a game against the Lakers, he gets 16 free throws. Which of the
following is the EXCEL command for the chance that he scores 12 points
(exactly) with free throws (scoring
MBAD 6221 Judgment, Uncertainty & Decisions Summer 2014
Help Session 2
1. Investors daily, a magazine rating stocks and mutual funds, has predicted that stock
A will have annual return 10% with a standard deviation of 4%, and stock B will
have annual ret
Judgment, Decisions, and Uncertainty
Homework Assignment II
Due date: A hard copy of Homework Assignment II must be submitted (to my
office, Room 406, Funger Hall) by Thursday, October 11, 3:00PM.
Please adhere to the following guidelines for the submissi
Name:
Cohort:
InClass Quiz 2  Solutions
Please include all your solutions on this page. You have 10 minutes to complete the quiz.
1. A car salesman estimates the following probabilities for the number of cars that he will
sell in the next week:
Number o
Judgment, Decisions, and Uncertainty
Homework Assignment I  2012  Solutions
Question 1:
You have the capital to invest in two of four ventures, each of which requires
approximately the same amount of investment capital. Unknown to you, two of the
invest
Judgment, Uncertainty and Decisions
Lecture Set 3
Babak Zafari
The George Washington University
School of Business
Department of Decision Sciences
Summer 2014
Outline
Discrete Random Variables
PMF/CDF
Expectation, Variance, and Standard Deviation
Joint Pr
Judgment, Uncertainty and Decisions
Lecture Set 4
Babak Zafari
The George Washington University
School of Business
Department of Decision Sciences
Summer 2014
Outline
Decision making under uncertainty
Decision criteria
Decision trees
Expected value of per
Judgment, Uncertainty and Decisions
Lecture Set 5
Babak Zafari
The George Washington University
School of Business
Department of Decision Sciences
Summer 2014
Outline
Continuous Random Variables
PDF/CDF
Exponential Distribution
Normal Distribution
Standar
Judgment, Uncertainty and Decisions
Lecture Set 2
Babak Zafari
The George Washington University
School of Business
Department of Decision Sciences
Summer 2014
Outline
Probability background and basic principles
Venn diagrams
Probability concepts
Marginal/
MBAD 6221 Judgment, Uncertainty & Decisions Summer 2014
Sample Quiz 2

1. Consider two random variables X and Y. Suppose that the variance of X is 20, and that
the variance of Y is 10, and that the covariance of X and Y is 5. What is the variance of
the
Judgment, Uncertainty and Decisions
Lecture Set 1
Babak Zafari
The George Washington University
School of Business
Department of Decision Sciences
Summer 2014
Outline
Overview of syllabus
Importance of Analytics
Introduction to Statistics
Types of Random
MBAD 6221 Judgment, Uncertainty & Decisions Summer 2014
Sample Quiz 1

1. Suppose that a histogram of a data set is approximately symmetric and "bell shaped".
Approximately what percent of the observations are within two standard deviations of
the mean?
MBAD 6221 Judgment, Uncertainty & Decisions Summer 2014
Sample Quiz 1

1. Suppose that a histogram of a data set is approximately symmetric and "bell shaped".
Approximately what percent of the observations are within two standard deviations of
the mean?
MBAD 6221 Judgment, Uncertainty & Decisions Summer 2014
Help Session 1

1. Fie Exam.xlsx has the data on 40 students statistics exam scores. Answer the following
questions:
a. What is the class average on the exam?
b. What is the median for this exam?
c.
MBAD 6221 Judgment, Uncertainty & Decisions Summer 2014
Help Session 1

1. Below are the related Excel formulas and the final answer to the questions:
a. AVERAGE(B2:B41) = 80.4
b. MEDIAN(B2:B41) = 79.5
c. STDEV(B2:B41) = 6.80
d. QUARTILE(B2:B41,3) = 85
e
Correlation
A
B
exp return
0.1
0.2
std dev
0.04
0.1
weight in protfolio
0.3
0.7
R=0.3*A + 0.7*B
E[R]=E[0.3A+0.7B]=0.3E[A]+0.7E[B]
Var[R]=Var[0.3A+0.7B]=
Std dev[R]=
0.068614867
0.17
0.004708
0.2
y
p
n
# people who take discount amoung next 20 customers
0
Homework Assignment 1
Impact 4
Shivan Agrawal
Christophoer Conley
Douglas Nickerson
Bahareh SarramiFrooshani
Weixin Xie
Question 1
Answers:
a) 1/6
b) 5/6
Solution:
a) Probability of selecting the 1st successful venture out of the 4 ventures = 1/2
Probabi
Name:
Cohort:
InClass Quiz 3  Solutions
Please include all your solutions on this page. You have 10 minutes to complete the quiz.
1. Consider a continuous random variable X with domain or sample space [4, 25]. Its
probability density function is f(x), a