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Quiz 2
Name: Rachel Powers
Place the correct letter in the blank to the left of the question
_D_1. An analytic and systematic approach to the study of decision making is referred to as
A) decision making under risk.
B) decision making under uncert
QMB3600
Quiz 1
Place the correct letter in the blank to the left of the question
_E_ 1. Operations Research is known as
A) the science of numerical analysis.
B) the science of sensitivity analysis.
C) the science of better.
D) the science of modeling.
E)
Quiz
Note: It is recommended that you save your response as you complete each question.
Question 1 (1 point)
What type of business analytics uses optimization models to provide new and better
ways to operate?
Question 1 options:
descriptive analytics
pers
SET 2C:
DECISION MAKING UNDER RISK
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PROFESSOR RICHARD DECKER
2C-1
EXPECTED VALUE APPROACH
(BEST EMV)
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PROFESSOR RICHARD DECKER
Decision Making with Probabilities
Previously we have made decisions without
knowing the likelihood, or probabil
You DO NOT have to write the linear programs or input them into Excel for # 1 3. You are given
the optimal value in the A questions and a printout of the sensitivity reports in the Project E
Sensitivity Reports Excel File. Use the details of the problems,
Index Crime in the United States, 2014
Data includes each state, the District of Columbia, and U.S. T
SOURCE: Federal Bureau of Investigation. (2014). Crime in th
Beginning with 2013, Rape includes Sodomy offenses which
State
ALABAMA
ALASKA
ARIZONA
ARKANS
PROJECT
16)Decision tree
E (s1)
B (d1)
N (d2)
S (d3)
Prior P
If Fav
If UnFav
P of Fav
P of Unfav
U (s2)
51
23
10
0.28
0.82
0.31
0.65
0.35
-34
-12
2
0.72
0.18
0.69
Circle
EMV
Square
Decision
Research
Buy more StoCircle
Square
Not buy/Not SCircle
Favorable
QMB 3600 Quantitative Methods in Business
Project A: Using Probabilities to Make Decisions (Unit 2)
Diamond Scenario: Bad economy
Data
A financial planning firm has a decision to make. The company can buy more stocks (B) now, not buy and
not sell stock (
National Average CD Rates for Five-Year Yields
1. Name you source and include the link to where the data was found. Give you data set
in an organized, presentable fashion.
Source is: www.bankrate.com
Internet Hyperlink: http:/www.bankrate.com/finance/cd-r
Homework
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Quantitative Methods in Business
2B: Decisions Making Under Certainty
For each situation, find the decisions using:
(a) the optimistic approach
(b) the conservative approach
(c) The minimax regret approach
A, B, C, and D are states of na
SET 2D:
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
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PROFESSOR RICHARD DECKER
2D-1
CHANGES IN PROBABILITIES:
CONCEPT & COMPLEMENTS
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PROFESSOR RICHARD DECKER
Sensitivity Analysis
Sensitivity Analysis:
How
changes in the probability of the states of
nature
or
chan
Quantitative analysis is the scientific approach to managerial decision making. Also known as
Management Science.
Business analytics is the data-driven approach to decision making that allows companies to
make better decisions.
Descriptive analytics invol
SET 2B
DECISION ANALYSIS
DECISION MAKING UNDER CERTAINTY
POLK STATE COLLEGE BAS PROGRAM
PROFESSOR RICHARD DECKER
QMB 3600 Quantitative Methods in Business
2B-1
DEFINITIONS AND UNIT EXAMPLE
QMB 3600
PROFESSOR RICHARD DECKER
Problem Formulation
To begin, ma
2A: Expected Value
1. We are going to have an outdoor art festival! It is estimated that 120 people will come if
it is a cool day, 100 will come if it is a warm day, and 40 will come if is a hot day. Bay
News 9 estimates that there is a 20% chance of bein
SET 2E:
DECISION TREES
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PROFESSOR RICHARD DECKER
2E-1
DECISION TREES WITH
SAMPLE INFORMATION
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PROFESSOR RICHARD DECKER
Decision Analysis with Sample
Information
Prior Probability:
Preliminary
assessments of the probability of the states of
4B Nonlinear Regression
Q
u
e
s
t
i
o
n
1
Answer the following question without using a calculator or paper. You can use your fingers if you
want.
Approximate 215
Answer: 32K
Question
2
Answer the following question without using a calculator or paper. Yo
2E Decision Trees
1. The Efficiency Rating "E" is a ratio of what two expected values?
-Sample Information
-Perfect Information
2. The Risk Profile takes into account which of the following?
-Only the payoffs of the reduced decision tree
-Both the probabi
4A Multiple Regression
1. When a multiple regression model has an overall p-value less than
alpha, this means: At least one of the variables are significant.
2. Where on the multiple regression printout can the printout can the
overall p-value for the ent
3C Misuse of Regression
1. Which of the following best describes this study?
Recently, fuel efficiency of the most efficent fully gasoline car is
increasing by 4 mpg per year. In 10 years it should increase by 40 mpg.
Regression to the Moon
2. Which of th
3AB Correlation & Regression
1. Perfect correlation sometimes happens when the variables are related
by a formula.
FALSE
2. The type of correlation we are studying in Unit 3A is exponential
correlation.
FALSE
3. Negative correlation means that the correla
2D Sensitivity Analysis
1. What is the complement of an event that has a probability of 0.1?
.9
2. When we use sensitivity analysis, how many values can vary at once?
1
3. What is the sum of the probabilities of two events that are complements?
1
4. Check
2BC Decision Making Under Certainty & Risk
1. How is a decision made using the optimistic approach?
The manager will choose the payoff that is: The maximum of the maximums.
2. How is a decision made using the conservative approach?
The manager will choose
2A Expected Value
1. Find the expected value for sales:
A store is having a big sale. If it snows, the store will make $1000 in sales. If
it does not snow, the store will make $3000 in sales. There is a 50% chance
that it snows.
2000
2. Find the expected
Chapter 1
1. What type of business analytics uses optimization models to provide new and
better ways to operate? Prescriptive Analytics
2. Which of the following is a major reason for the failure of management
science? Bad problem definition
3. What is an
PROYECT A
16)Decision tree
E (s1)
Buy more StoCircle
Strong
Weak
35.7
Square
Not buy/Not S
Circle
Favorable Decision EMV
Buy more S
35.7
Sell its Stock Circle
Strong
Weak
16.7
Result
Research
Fav
Fav
UnFav
UnFav
Strong
Weak
8.56
21)
Buy more StoCircle
Str
Index Crime in the United States, 2014
Data includes each state, the District of Columbia, and U.S. Totals for each year.
SOURCE: Federal Bureau of Investigation. (2014). Crime in the United States, 2014.
Beginning with 2013, Rape includes Sodomy offenses
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.998354
R Square 0.996711
Adjusted R 0.994518
Standard E 141009.8
Observatio
21
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total
SS
MS
F
Significance F
8 7.2E+013 9.0E+012 454.576679614 1.054196931E-013
12 2.4E+011 2.0E+