BU346
Dr. Kydd
Assignment 4
1.
A company has budgeted $5 million for the coming fiscal year to be allocated among
its plants in Akron, Baltimore and Chicago. The $5 million is to be allocated in $1
mi
BU346
Dr. Kydd
Assignment 1
The executives of the General Products Company (GPC) have to decide which of
three products to introduce, A, B, or C. Product C is essentially a risk-free proposition,
from
?
Probability Theory
Random experiment or process
Process that results in 1 of many possible
_ where each outcome is predicted
by a probability
Sample space
Set of all possible outcomes in a _
process
BU346
Dr. Kydd
Assignment 3
1.
The Relax-and-Enjoy Lake Development Corporation is developing a lakeside
community at a privately owned lake and is in the business of selling property for
vacation and
Chapter 13 Simulation
Learning Objectives
1. 2. 3. 4. Understand what simulation is and how it aids in the analysis of a problem. Learn why simulation is a significant problem-solving tool. Understand
?
Simulation
Advantages
1. Simulation is relatively straightforward
and flexible.
2. Simulation can be used to analyze large
and complex real-world situations that
cannot be solved by conventional
ope
University of Delaware Project Team
Newark, DE 19716
May 11, 2016
Mr. Ali Mirzakhalili
Division of Air Quality
State Street Commons
100 W. Water Street, Suite 6A
Dover, DE 19904
Dear Mr. Mirzakhalili:
The Travel Cost to a
New Adventure
Katie Taggart
Statement of the
Problem/Decision
Accepted to study abroad in Australia/Thailand
during Winter Session 2017
UD no longer organizes the flights for st
Activity C
0
0.25
0.5
0.8
0.92
1
Activity I
0
0.02
0.1
0.3
0.7
0.98
1
Days A Days B RAND C Days C RAND D Days D RAND E Days E RAND F Days F
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
? Dynamic Programming - Example 3
NASA is conducting research on an
engineering problem that needs to be solved
before the next flight. Three _ teams
are working on 3 different approaches for
solving
J.B. Robinson Fertilizer and Explosives, Inc.
Case Study #1
Prepared by:
Katie Taggart and Erik Caputo
BUAD346: Analysis of Operations Problems
Professor Dr. Christine Kydd
March 22, 2016
Table of Con
J.B. Robinson Fertilizer and Explosives, Inc.
Case Study #1
Prepared by:
Katie Taggart and Erik Caputo
BUAD346: Analysis of Operations Problems
Professor Dr. Christine Kydd
May 3, 2016
Table of Conten
?
Markov Processes
First Passage Time:
This tells how many transitions are needed in
order to leave one state (state i) and go to a
second state (state j) for the first time.
This is not a probability
?County Beverage Brew-Thru Example
2 Servers single line
Service entrance
Service lanes
Car 4
Car 3
Car 2
Car 1
Exit
Waiting area
Note: Customers _ if more than 4 cars in line
?County Beverage Brew-Th
?
Alpo Dog Food Co.
Considering an advertising campaign to
attract new _
To
From
Alpo
Other
Alpo
0.8
0.1
Other
0.2
0.9
This is current switching behavior
?
Alpo Dog Food Co.
Advertising campaign costs
?
Markov Processes
A Markov Process describes a situation
where a system is in one state at a time
Switching between states is probabilistic
The state of the system is dependent ONLY
on the previous s
?
Probability Theory
Random experiment or process
Process that results in 1 of many possible
outcomes where each outcome is predicted
by a probability
Sample space
Set of all possible outcomes in a ra
BUAD 346 Exam 2 Review
Topics
Goal Programming (Assignment 3)
Formulation
o Economic constraints
o Goal constraints
o Objective function (min ds)
Graphical solution
o Identify the optimal point
o Find
Bayes Theorem
Frequency Table
?
2nd letter
1st letter
A
B
Total
C
200
50
250
D
160
190
350
E
240
160
400
Total
600
400
1000
?
Bayes Theorem
Joint Probability table
2nd letter
1st letter
A
B
Total
C
.2
? Quick Review of Discrete and
Continuous Distributions
Random Variable
Discrete
Continuous
Discrete Probability Distribution
Binomial
Continuous Probability Distribution
Normal (and Normal Approximat
BUAD Exam I
Probability Theory
Random Experiment or process
Process that results in 1 of many possible outcomes where each outcome is predicted by
a probability
Sample Space
Set of all possible outcom
?
Utility Theory
1. Suppose that you live in a floodplain and
stand to lose $100,000 if a flood occurs.
The probability of a flood is .001 in a
given year. Flood insurance costs $300.
What do you do?
?
Utility Theory
Utility can be _ many ways:
U(x) = +
x
U(x) = log (x)
x
U(x)
100
4.0
250
6.0
500
7.5
800
8.5
?
Utility Theory
Certainty Equivalent for Losses:
Amount you would pay for certain in
orde
? Sequential Decision Making
Decision trees are very useful when there are
multiple decisions to be made and they follow a
sequence in time. There are also usually multiple
sets of states.
sion 1 CP
D
?
Preposterior Analysis
Step 2: Recalculate EMVs for each
condition of the survey
For Good survey outcome
Use P(S|G), P(A|G), P(W|G)
EMVmanuf =
.615(60,000) + .385(12,000) + 0(-5000) = $41,520
EMVsell
?
?
?
Goal Programming
Priority levels
Different levels for goals that give
relative _ to the various
goals (in addition to weights)
P1
P2
Represents highest priority
Represents next highest
priority;
?
?
?
Goal Programming
Mathematical model similar to Linear
Programming, however it allows for
multiple goals to be satisfied at the same
time. Also the multiple goals can be
prioritized and weighted
Emilys Case #1
Statement of Problem
The fertilizers and explosives company, JB Robinson which is led by President Robinson, is
dealing with the threat of a patent suit. The company got into the explos