Homework 1 (Due September, 22nd)
Question 1 (50 points):
Suppose a firms business activities generate a random income of $x. This firm finances
its activities by selling two types of claims (or financ
Simple Linear Regression
Handout 1: Review of
Statistics p.8~p.17
Example 1
Let y be a students college
achievement, measured by his/her
GPA. This might be a function of
several variables:
x1 = rank i
ECON 422
ECONOMIC FORECASTING
PROF. S. MIALON
LectureNote1:ReviewofStatistics
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
Review basic statistics: Random variables, Normal distribution and t distribution,
Confidence Interval
ECON 422
Economic Forecasting
Prof S. Mialon
Lecture Note 3: Supplement
Regression Diagnostics:
Detecting Violations of Classical Assumptions
I. Linearity
Example 1: Telemarketing
A company that provi
ECON 422
Economic Forecasting
Prof S. Mialon
Lecture Note 6 (Chapter 8)
Modeling Cycles: ARMA
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
I.
Learn how to model MA (Moving Average) Process
Learn how to model AR (Autoregressiv
ECON 422
Economic Forecasting
Prof S. Mialon
Lecture Note 5 (Chapter 7)
Characterizing Cycles
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
Understand the Nature of Covariance Stationary time-series
Learn how to use partial au
ECON 422
Economic Forecasting
Prof S. Mialon
LectureNote3(Chapter5+)
Trend
I. ModelingTrend
1.WhatisTrend?
Example3.1QuarterlyPersonalConsumptionExpenditurefrom1980q11997q1.
q u a r te r ly c o n s u
ECON 422
ECONOMIC FORECASTING
PROF. S. MIALON
Homework Assignment #1
Due: 2/11(W) by midnight.
Upload your file on Blackboard
No Late Submission will be accepted.
Name:_
I. Barbara Lynch is the produc
Lecture 2:
The Forecast Process
ECON 422
Sue Mialon
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
Framework for a successful forecasting system
Forecast Format
Forecast Object
Forecast Methods and Complexity
Effective use of G
CH. 3-Principle Components of
Forecasting
ECO422 Dr. Koohi
Forecast statements
Three types:
1.
Point forecast results in a single number estimate
and is usually affected by shocks (unexpected
events),
THE TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST
RATES
RATES
Topics
Topics
1. Term structure.
2. Facts about term structure.
3. Theories of the Term Structure:
Expectation hypothesis theory.
Segmented Markets theory
Li
FINANCIAL ASSETS AND FINANCIAL
MARKETS
Key Topics
The structure: securities traded on them
The function of financial
intermediaries: their activities
intermediaries: their activities
The US system
Econ 422 Homework 3
3. Below is a graph of the natural log of kwh vs time from the second quarter of 1972 to
the 4th quarter of 1993. There is an upward trend and signs of seasonality as there is a
di
1. The scatter plot of growth on tradeshare does not seem to depict a strong
negative or positive relationship as the data seems at once clustered (with most
data points having a range of .3-.8 trades
ECON 422W
ECONOMIC FORECASTING
PROF. S. MIALON
Homework Assignment #2
Due: 2/22 (W) by midnight.
Upload your file on Blackboard
No Late Submission will be accepted.
Name:_
I. Barbara Lynch is the prod
ECON 422
ECONOMIC FORECASTING
PROF. S. MIALON
Homework Assignment #3
Due: 4/5(W) by midnight.
Upload your file on Blackboard /Assignment/
No Late Submission will be accepted.
Name:_
On Blackboard/Assi
ECON 422W
ECONOMIC FORECASTING
PROF. S. MIALON
Homework Assignment #1
Due: 2/20(M) by midnight.
Upload your file on Blackboard
No Late Submission will be accepted.
Name: Jacob Shuster
Barbara Lynch is
The Classical Model
Dr Koohi
What is a Good estimator?
We have already discussed two key criteria of a good
estimator: it should minimize observational error, and
should maximize the explained portion
Ch. 5 Time Series and Trend
ECO422 Dr. Koohi
Time Series
There are 3 main components in any
Time Series:
Trend.
Seasonality. is that part of a series movement that repeats
Seasonality
Trend is that pa
ECON 422
Economic Forecasting
Prof S. Mialon
Economic Forecasting
Practice questions #1
A: Forecasting with Regressions
B: Forecasting Trend and Seasonality
C: Cycles
Part A: Model Selection and Forec