Lore (Qin Jian) Zhu
SBU ID: 111220810
EST 581. Heuristics and Quantitative Decision Making
ASSIGNMENT 3: EVEN SWAPS
Assigned: 2/20/17
Due: 5:30pm 2/27/17
Submit on Blackboard.
Question 1. Even Swaps
Imagine you have won a holiday for 2 people and have bee

CLASS 5.
9/29/16
Homework Review
SMARTER
Even Swaps
In-Class Assignment
Thinking, Fast and Slow Discussion
Last Week: SMART
Although SMART is relatively simple, some of the judgements it requires
can be difficult for decision makers
This week and next w

CLASS 9.
10/27/16
Homework Review
Single-Attribute Utility
Multi-Attribute Utility
Thinking, Fast and Slow Discussion
Utility
Utility is used to assess attitude to risk of a decision
maker
Last week we talked about EMV. EMV does not account
for any cons

CLASS 8.
10/20/16
Expected Value
In-Class Assignment
Thinking, Fast and Slow Discussion
Group Work Session 3
Refresh
Heuristics (unaided decision making)
Decisions with multiple objectives
MCDA, SMART, SMARTER, Even Swaps, Analytic Hierarchy
Process (A

CLASS 6.
10/6/16
Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)
In-Class Assignment
Thinking, Fast and Slow Discussion
Assignment 3 Solution
The solution to Assignment 3- Even Swaps homework will be
posted on Blackboard
Please take a look to see how it compares to

Xiwei Huang
09/14/16 HW #3
Question # 1
(a)
Availability
Because of illusory correlation, they might assume that some features
like appearance experience, education and so on indicates whether
they will be good or not.
Meanwhile, the employers can or ca

1.
Availability heuristics:
Events which are vivid, recent, unusual or highlighted by media are
readily recalled or imagined and, therefore, assigned high
probability.
2.
Representativeness heuristics:
When asked to judge the probability that a person or

EST 581. Heuristics and Quantitative Decision Making
ASSIGNMENT 6: UTILITY
Assigned: 10/27/16
Due: 5:00pm 11/3/16
Submit on Blackboard.
Chapter 6, Question 5
Hint for part A: Make a decision tree for the problem and calculate EMV.
Hint for part B:
Step 1.

EST 581. Heuristics and Quantitative Decision Making
ASSIGNMENT 6: UTILITY
Assigned: 10/27/16
Due: 5:00pm 11/3/16
Submit on Blackboard.
$150,000
Chapter 6, Question 5
(a)
Bargain the price 0.5
$120,000
$0
Quoting for $15,000
$100,000
Quoting for $10,000
A

II. Decision Problem and Alternatives
The decision problem addressed was the determination of
the best suitable job to choose for me. After A shotgun
approach to job-hunting. I received numerable offers.
However, I literally graduated at masters degree fo

Very tricky! You wont likely see problems like this on the
exam.
If a candidate has the least management experience their
score will be
[0 x 23.3 + the other weighted scores]/100
If instead the candidate had 10 years management
experience their score will

Omaha Feed Mill Aggregate Planning Problem
A large Omaha feed mill prepares its 6 month aggregate plan by forecasting demand for
50 pound bags of cattle feed as follows: January, 1,000 bags; February, 1,200 bags;
March, 1,250 bags; April, 1,450 bags; May,

WELCOME TO EST 581
Heuristics and Quantitative Decision Making
Fall 2016
Thursdays 5:30-8:30pm
Dr. Krista Thyberg
CLASS 1.
9/1/16
Class Overview
Introduction to Complicated Decision Making
Introduction to Heuristics
Course Introduction
Course goals:
Dem

CLASS 4.
9/22/16
SMART
In-Class Assignment
Thinking, Fast and Slow Discussion
SMART
Simple Multi-Attribute Rating Technique
Simple, transparent
Allows decision-making process to be understood
Enables a defensible rationale for decision outcome
Can il

CLASS 7.
10/13/16
Probability
Group Work Session 2
Introduction
Previously: Examined decision problems when uncertainty was not considered a
major factor
We knew what outcome would occur based on a given action
However, many decisions involve uncertain

Lore(Qin Jian) Zhu
ID:111220810
EST 581. Heuristics and Quantitative Decision Making
ASSIGNMENT 1: HEURISTICS
Question 1 (page 269)
(a.) The members of an interview panel may estimate the success by the
appearance or the impression of the candidate but ig

EST 581. Heuristics and Quantitative Decision Making
ASSIGNMENT 1: HEURISTICS
Solutions
Question 1 (page 269) from Chapter 10 of the textbook.
Various acceptable answers are possible.
a) Representativeness; panel may incorrectly think the candidate is rep

EST 581. Heuristics and Quantitative Decision Making
ASSIGNMENT 4: Probability and Thinking, Fast and Slow
Assigned: 3/6/17
Due: 5:30pm 3/20/17
Submit on Blackboard.
Chapter 5, Question 6
1. 0.1*0.05*0.2=0.001
2. 1-0.1*1-0.05*1-0.2=0.684
Chapter 5, Questi

Lore(Qin Jian) Zhu
EST 581. Heuristics and Quantitative Decision Making
ASSIGNMENT 6: UTILITY & DECISION TREES
Assigned: 4/3/17
Due: 5:00pm 4/10/17
Chapter 6, Question 5
1. A. EMV=150000*0.2+120000*0.5+0*0.3=90000
B. EMV=100000*0.3+80000*0.6+0*0.1=78000
S

Lore Zhu
111220810
EST 581. Heuristics and Quantitative Decision Making
ASSIGNMENT 5: EMV and Thinking, Fast and Slow
Assigned: 3/20/17
Due: 5:00pm 3/27/17
Submit on Blackboard.
Chapter 6, Question 2 Part A and C
A. EMV= 200,000*0.6+(-60,000)*0.4=96,000
F

Lore(Qin Jian) Zhu
ID: 111220810
EST 581. Heuristics and Quantitative Decision Making
ASSIGNMENT 2: SMART
Assigned: 2/13/17
Due: 5:30pm 2/20/17
Textbook Chapter 3
Question 5
A. No.
Only for marks, Inston Common site is 5 times to Red Beach. (100 to 20)
Ho

Assignment
2
Q5, Part A
No, we cannot conclude that, for visual impact Inston
Common is five times from preferable than Jones Wood.
This is because values are measured on an interval scale
We can, however, infer that the improvement in visual
impact from

EST 581
Fall 2016
Dr. Krista Thyberg
Thinking, Fast and Slow
By Daniel Kahneman
READING SCHEDULE
Date
9/1
Class
#
1
TFS Chapters to be Read by the Following
Class
9/8
2
Introduction, 1, 2
9/15
9/22
3
4
3, 4
7
9/29
5
8, 9
10/6
6
10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16

CLASS 3.
9/15/16
Homework Review
Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA)
The Athey Approach/Weighted Sum Model
Thinking, Fast and Slow Discussion
Group Work Session 1
Introduction: Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis
(MCDA)
General framework for supporting

CLASS 10.
11/3/16
Homework Review
Decision Trees
Key Considerations for Decision Making
In-Class Assignment
Group Work Session 4
Decision Trees
Tool to help people better understand the structure of their
problems
Used for problems with uncertainty (unc

CLASS 2.
9/8/16
Quiz
Intro to Thinking, Fast and Slow
More Heuristics: Biases & Examples
In-Class Assignment
QUIZ
Question 1:
A team of psychologists performed personality tests on 100 professionals, of
which 30 were engineers and 70 were lawyers.
See th

Describe the decision problem that the group will analyze.
What are the alternatives being considered? What
constraints exist (e.g., budget, time)? The assignment
should be about 3 to 4 double-spaced pages.
Selecting the Proper Outboard Engine
Quality Ass

First normalize the weights (divide by the total sum of
raw weights, multiply by 100, round)
Now calculate aggregate for Candidate A
Efficient Solution: A feasible solution is called
efficient if there is no other feasible solution where all
the objecti