EGRMGMT 580 Decision Models
Class #2
9/8/2016
1
Road Map
Ventron Case
Decision Tree exercise
Sensitivity Analysis
Value of Information
2
Ventron Case
What are the alternatives?
What is the optimal strategy?
How about the value of the new
technology?
S

Solutions to Excel Proficiency Exercises
Multiplication Table Problem: Mixed Addressing
The Problem
Create a multiplication table in the space below by entering a single formula in the upper
left-hand cell and copying that one formula to fill the rest of

EGRMGMT 580, Decision Models
Excel Proficiency Exercises
1. Create a 10x10 multiplication table on the spreadsheet, as shown below. The cells
inside the table (i.e., within the black border) should contain only formulas, not
numbers. (You should find it u

values in $ 1,000's
2200
3000
650
0.05
Probability
0
0.8
100
0.2
P(competitor buys in June)
0.1
June price drops
If price doesn't drop in May
Probability
0
0.3
100
0.7
Initial price
Gross value
Fallback value
P(competitor buys in May)
May price drops
If p

EGRMGMT 580 Decision Models
Class #1
9/1/2016
1
Road Map
Introduction to Modeling
Syllabus
Break
Eyetech case
Decision Trees
Treeplan
2
Decision Models
3
Decision
The only way that individuals can purposely exercise any
control over their lives, the

Decision Tree example problem
Class 1
EGRMGMT 580: Decision Models
Fall 2016
Decision Tree Example (Based on Winston and Albright, Example 2.5, p. 55)
The Westhouser Paper Company in the state of Washington is contemplating purchasing
a piece of land with

EGRMGMT 580 Decision Models
Fall 2016
Drilling Exercise
Prepare for Class 3
(Sep 15)
Assignment: Answer the questions on the next page.
Each student should submit the following on Sakai before the beginning of class:
For question 1
Part a: One sentence s

EGRMGMT 580 Decision Models
Class #4
9/22/2016
1
Probability: mathematical language of uncertainties
Judgments could be informed by data when data
is available
Assessing probabilities from experts
2
Assessing probabilities from experts
3
Direct Assessme

Eyetech Pharmaceuticals1
Background on the Drug Development Process
The regulatory framework surrounding the drug development process forces companies to make decisions
about the target market for a drug many years before the drug becomes available on the