Introduction to Forecasting
Introduction to Forecasting
Predicting the future
Not an exact science but instead consists of a
set of statistical tools and techniques that are
supported by human judgment and intuition
.
Introduction to Forecasting
Business

Principles and risks of forecasting
Robert Nau
Fuqua School of Business, Duke University
September 2014
I have seen the future and it is very much like the present only longer. K. Albran, The Profit
Introduction
Forecasting can take many formsstaring into

Lecture notes on forecasting
Robert Nau
Fuqua School of Business
Duke University
http:/people.duke.edu/~rnau/forecasting.htm
Introduction to ARIMA models
Nonseasonal
Seasonal
(c) 2014 by Robert Nau, all rights reserved
ARIMA models
Auto-Regressive Inte

Review of basic statistics and the simplest
forecasting model: the sample mean
Robert Nau
Fuqua School of Business, Duke University
August 2014
Most of what you need to remember about basic statistics
Consider a random variable called X that is a time ser

Notes on the random walk model
Robert Nau
Fuqua School of Business, Duke University
1. The random walk model
2. The geometric random walk model
3. More reasons for using the random walk model
1. THE RANDOM WALK MODEL 1
One of the simplest and yet most imp

Notes on nonseasonal ARIMA models
Robert Nau
Fuqua School of Business, Duke University
1. THE GENERAL THEORY
So far we have looked at several different classes of models that might be used to predict a time
series from its own history: regression models t

Forecasting with moving averages
Robert Nau
Fuqua School of Business, Duke University
August 2014
1. Simple moving averages
2. Comparing measures of forecast error between models
3. Simple exponential smoothing
4. Linear exponential smoothing
5. A real ex

BA 513: Ph.D. Seminar on Choice Theory
Professor Robert Nau
Spring Semester 2008
Notes and readings for class #1 (updated January 11, 2008)
At our first class meeting we will discuss the broad outlines of rational choice theory, touch on a few
of the cont

BA 513: Ph.D. Seminar on Choice Theory
Professor Robert Nau
Fall Semester 2008
Notes and readings for class #2: axioms of subjective probability, expected utility, and
subjective expected utility (revised January 11, 2008)
In the last class we saw how ord