1
Forecasting
Case Study 1: Forecasting
Dr. Neil Weiss
MAT 543: Quantitative Methods for Health Services
November 6, 2016
2
Forecasting
Explain each step in the forecasting process for each method.
Extrapolation Based upon Average Change examines the mont
Fr
Fr
1
Start
Start
1
Specific Operation of Process
Patient
Arrive
Records the
Received Clarification
Complaint
Pull Charts
Received
Clarification
Char
t
Nurse
Performs
Test
reci
Med
ic
Recd Doctor
Orders
Complaint
and Findings
on Form
Examination Room
To
Question 1
2 out of 2 points
The following inequality represents a resource constraint for a maximization problem:
X + Y 20
Selected Answer:
Correct False
Correct Answer:
Correct False
Question 2
2 out of 2 points
A linear programming problem may have mor
Question 1
2 out of 2 points
Probabilistic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters.
Selected Answer:
Correct False
Correct Answer:
Correct False
Question 2
2 out of 2 points
Fixed cost is the difference between total cost and tota
Question 1
5 out of 5 points
Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters.
Selected Answer:
Correct True
Correct Answer:
Correct True
Question 2
5 out of 5 points
An inspector correctly identifies defective products 90% o
Cereal Company
a.
Linear programming model
variables
x = oats (oz)
y = rice (oz)
0.06x+0.3y
10*x+6*y<=45
2*x+3*y<=13
minimize
subject to
Cost
Vitamin A Requirement
Vitamin B Requirement
b.
Cost
0.06
0.03
Usage
oats
rice
Required
Total Cost
0
Vitamin A
10
Question 1
2 out of 2 points
Probability trees are used only to compute conditional probabilities.
Selected Answer:
Correct False
Correct Answer:
Correct False
Question 2
2 out of 2 points
Seventy two percent of all observations fall within 1 standard dev
Public Budgeting and Finance
discussion
DISCUSSION 1
From the e-Activities, discuss two (2) differences between Michigans budget and your
state budget in terms of budget process, financial reporting, and costs analysis (fixed
costs, step-fixed costs, and
4. transportation problem
1
$6
12
4
From
A
B
C
DV
From
A
B
C
Constraint
Demand
Objective Minimize Cost
LP
To (cost)
2
$9
3
8
1
0.00
0.00
80.00
80.00
=
80
To
2
80.00
10.00
20.00
110.00
=
110
3
$100
5
11
3
0.00
60.00
0.00
60.00
=
60
Constraint
80
70
100
153
Product Lines
Profits for each product
Product #1
6
Time required on Line #1
Time required on Line #2
10
7
Product #1
Product #2
3
7
Maximized profits
Product #2
4
10
3
46
Please use graphic method to solve the problem
Please enter your solution in Yellow
The objective function, is a function that relates the values of decision variables to a quantity of
interest (Taylor, 2012). For example, the objective function may relate quantities of different
goods produced to profit they generate or the costs that i
Melissa Beadle is a student at Tech, and she wants to decide how many hours each day to
allocate to the following activities: class; studying; leisure and fun stuff; personal
activities such as eating, bathing, cleaning, laundry, and so on; and sleeping.
MAT540 Homework
Week 3
Page 1 of 3
MAT540
Week 3 Homework
Chapter 14
1.
The Hoylake Rescue Squad receives an emergency call every 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6 hours, according to
the following probability distribution. The squad is on duty 24 hours per day, 7 days
Question 1
1. Probabilistic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters.
True
False
2 points
Question 2
1. In general, an increase in price increases the break even point if all costs are held
constant.
True
False
2 points
Question 3
The importance of variation to health-care organizations prove to be pertinent because their goal
is to create processes that are stable and effective. Ongoing care and its improvement are
temporal, so in their situation, learning from variation over time
Grafton Metalworks Company
Ore
1
2
3
4
5
6
A
0.19
0.43
0.17
0.2
0
0.12
A
B
C
D
D
Metal
Composition constraints
Impurity constraint
Decision variables
Metal (%)
B
C
0.15
0.12
0.1
0.25
0
0
0.12
0
0.24
0.1
0.18
0.16
Ore
1
2
3
4
5
6
Objective function
Minimiz
Hoylake Rescue Squad
Probability of Time between calls
P(x)
0.05
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.05
1
Simulation
Cumulative
(lower
Time between
bound)
calls
0
1
0.05
2
0.15
3
0.45
4
0.75
5
0.95
6
EV =
3.65
Average Time =
3.79
Time
Cumulative
RN
between calls
clock
0.52
The Livewright Medical Supplies Company
Earning
Expense
South
600
East
540
Midwest
375
80
70
50
Decision variables
0
10
1
Objective function
Maximize Profits
Constraint
750
0
<=
<=
750
5
All decision variables MUST BE integers
5775
Solve the mixed integer
Hoylake Rescue Squad
Probability of Time between calls
P(x)
0.05
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.05
1
Cumulative
(lower
Time
bound)
between calls Expectation
0
1
0.05
0.05
2
0.2
0.15
3
0.9
0.45
4
1.2
0.75
5
1
0.95
6
0.3
EV =
3.65
Average Time =
3.631578947
Simulation
R
Product Lines
Profits for each product
Product #1
6
Time required on Line #1
Time required on Line #2
10
7
Product #1
Product #2
14
3
Total hours
100
42
3
7
Maximized profits
Product #2
4
46
Please use graphic method to solve the problem
Please enter your