Lecture Notes on
Time Series Decomposition
Applied Business Forecasting and Planning
Dr. Farideh Dehkordi-Vakil
Introduction
One
approach to the analysis of time series
data is based on smoothing past data in order
to separate the underlying pattern in t
Lecture Notes on
Introduction to
Business Forecasting
Applied Business Forecasting and Planning
Dr. Farideh Dehkordi-Vakil
Introduction
Forecasts
prediction of future events.
Forecasting
The act of making such predictions.
Forecasting is very important
Lecture Notes on
MOVING AVERAGES AND EXPONENTIAL
SMOOTHING
Applied Business Forecasting and Planning
Dr. Farideh Dehkordi-Vakil
Introduction
Consider the situation facing a manger who must
periodically forecast the inventories for hundreds of
products.
D
Review Lecture on
Descriptive Statistics for Examining the
Relationship between Two Variables
Applied Business Forecasting and Regression
Analysis
Dr. Farideh Dehkordi-Vakil
Case Study
A maintenance
supervisor for the Transit
Authority, would like to det
Homework 2
DS 533
Problem 10 page 99 of the textbook
a) The overall trend of the time series starts off negatively in 1989 until mid-1990, then begins
trending up until it peaks in 2005, then begins to decrease again. The seasonality shows peaks in
the sp
DS 533
Homework 1
A company that produces and market trash bags has developed an improved 30-gallon bag. The
new bag is produced using a specially formulated plastic that is both stronger and more
biodegradable than previously used plastics, and the compa
Review Lecture on
Descriptive Statistics
Applied Business Forecasting and Planning
Dr. Farideh Dehkordi-Vakil
Case Study
Banks employ many workers paid by the hour, such
as tellers and data clerks. A large bank, which we will
call simply National bank to
Practice Quiz 5_Solution
1.
The least squares procedure minimizes the sum of
A)
B)
C)
D)
E)
2.
the residuals.
squared maximum error.
absolute errors.
squared residuals. *
None of the above.
The Y-intercept of the simple regression model
A)
B)
C)
D)
3.
4.
Practice Quiz 4_Solution
1.
A seasonal index number of .80 for quarter one of an automobile parts manufacturer
suggests
A)
B)
C)
D)
E)
2.
The sum of seasonal index numbers should equal
A)
B)
C)
D)
E)
3.
4.
5.
Quarter one sales are 80% above the norm.
Quar
Practice Quiz 3_Solution
1.
Time-series smoothing techniques attempt to
A)
B)
C)
D)
E)
2.
3.
4.
A simple-centered 3-point moving average of the time-series variable Xt is given by:
A)
(Xt-1 + Xt-2 + Xt-3)/3.
B)
(Xt + Xt-1 + Xt-1)/3.
C)
(Xt+1 + Xt + Xt-1)/
Tyler Wade
Homework #2
Mrs.Valeva
6/13/2016
a. The MSE is 7.9. The MSE represents the average squared distance between the actual
size of production and the number of hours of labor.
b. RSE is 2.81 labor hours, this means that the average distance between
Tyler Wade
Homework #2
Mrs.Valeva
6/13/2016
a. The MSE is 7.9. The MSE represents the average squared distance between the actual
size of production and the number of hours of labor.
b. RSE is 2.81 labor hours, this means that the average distance between
Tyler Wade
Homework 1
Mrs.Valeva
6/8/2016
Relationship between the size of Production & Number of Hours Worked
90
Number of Items
80
70
60
50
40
30
50
75
100
125
150
175
Labor (hours)
a.)
Number of Items
Labor (hours)
b.) The graph shows a strong positive
Computer lab Exercise
Simple linear regression
DS 303
Cost estimation.
The data for this problem is called COSTEST3.xlsx. It is in the folder called Computer Lab
Practice Problems on Western Online course site. The file COSTEST3.xlsx contains data on
prod
Practice Problem 5
Manipulating Data
Amanda Hesse
DS-490G
2/29/2016
Creating Three New Variables
1.
a.
Write a DATA step to read a data set called customer to create Work.birthday.
b.
In the DATA step, create three new variables, Bday2009, BdayDOW2009, an
Exam 2
DS-203
Fall 2004
Name_
Show all your work.
1.
In a sodium dietary study, the initial systolic blood pressure (in mm Hg) for all
female participants is found to have a mean value of 120.5 mm and a standard
deviation of 12.4 mm. Let x denote the init
DS 523
Spring 2005
Exam 2
Name:
Show all your work
1.
RVW (Restored Volkswagens) buys 15 used VW's at each of two car auctions each week
held at different locations. It then transports the cars to repair shops it contracts with.
When they are restored to
DS 303
Spring 2004
Exam # 2
Name:
Key
Show All your Work
1.
The yield on a general obligation bond for the city of Davenport fluctuates with
the market. The monthly quotations for 1999 are as follows:
Month
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
Augus
DS 303
Spring 2004
Final Exam
Name: _KEY_
Show All your Work
1.
Decision Science Associates has been asked to do a feasibility study for a
proposed destination resort to be located within half a mile of the Grand Coulee
Dam. Mark Craze is not happy with t
DS 303
Spring 2005
Exam # 3
Name: _Key_
1.
The information below represents the relationship between the selling price (Y, in
$1000) of a home, the square footage of the home ( X 1 ), and the number of bedrooms in
the home ( X 2 ). The data represents 65
DS 533
Fall 2003
Exam # 2
Name: _KEY_
Show All your Work
1. Forecasters at Siegfried Corporation are using simple exponential smoothing to
forecast the sales of its major product. They are trying to decide what smoothing
constant will give the best result
DS 533
Fall 2003
Exam # 3
Name: _KEY_
Show All your Work
1.
Barbara Lynch is the product manager for a line of ski wear produced by
HealthCo industries. She would like to provide a quarterly forecast of sales for
the Northern United States. One of her col
DS 533
Fall 2003
Exam # 1
Name: _
Show All your Work
1.
You are the quality control manager in a plant that produces bungee cords. Your
responsibility is to oversee the production of the synthetic material in the cord. Specifically,
your responsibility is