Instructor Name: Dr. Fayed Alshammri
Student Name: Raed Althiban
ID: 130195726
a) Which option should Waldo choose if they use the maximax criterion?
200 BOOKS MAXIMAX CRITERION
ALTERNATIVE
50 books
100 books
150 books
200 books
FAVORABLE
MARKET ($)
UNFAV
1. Qualitativeforecastingmodelsinclude
a. regressionanalysis.
b.
Delphi.
a.
timeseriesmodel.
a.
exponentialsmoothing.
c. timeseriesmodels.
d. trendlines.
2. Aforecastingmodelthatonlyuseshistoricaldataforthevariablebeingforecastiscalleda
b. causalmodel.
c.
W6-Ch13-Waiting Lines and Queuing Theory Models
True/False
1. A goal of many waiting line problems is to help a firm find the ideal level of services that
minimize the cost of waiting and the cost of providing the service. (T)
2. Balking refers to custome
The idea is simple the new estimate is the old estimate plus some fraction of the error in the last period.
Exponential Smoothing Example
In January, Februarys demand for a certain car model was predicted to be 142.
Actual February demand was 153 autos
Weighted Moving
Averages
STAT 201: Quantitative
Methods
Weighted Moving Averages
Forecasting & Weighted Moving Average
Managers are always trying to reduce uncertainty and make better
estimates of what will happen in the future.
Some firms use subjectiv
Excel QM Trend Projection Model
Seasonal Variations
Recurring variations over time may indicate the need for seasonal adjustments in the trend line.
A seasonal index indicates how a particular season compares with an average season.
When no trend is pr
where
Tt =
smoothed trend for time period t
Ft =
smoothed forecast for time period t
FITt = forecast including trend for time period t
=smoothing constant for forecasts
=
smoothing constant for trend
Selecting a Smoothing Constant
As with exponential smo
The firm wants to create a forecast that includes seasonality.
Eichler Supplies Answering Machine Sales and Seasonal Indices
Seasonal Variations
The calculations for the seasonal indices are
Seasonal Variations with Trend
When both trend and seasonal c
Positive tracking signals indicate demand is greater than forecast.
Negative tracking signals indicate demand is less than forecast.
Some variation is expected, but a good forecast will have about as much positive error as negative error.
Problems are in
Using Regression with Trend and Seasonal Components
Multiple regression can be used to forecast both trend and seasonal components in a time series.
One independent variable is time.
Dummy independent variables are used to represent the seasons.
The m
Trend projection fits a trend line to a series of historical data points.
The line is projected into the future for medium- to long-range forecasts.
Several trend equations can be developed based on exponential or quadratic models.
The simplest is a line
They decide on the following weighting scheme:
Weighted Moving Average
Selecting the Forecasting Module in Excel QM
Initialization Screen for Weighted Moving Average
Weighted Moving Average in Excel QM for Wallace Garden Supply
Exponential Smoothing
Exp
Exponential Smoothing Example
In January, Februarys demand for a certain car model was predicted to be 142.
Actual February demand was 153 autos
Using a smoothing constant of = 0.20, what is the forecast for March?
New forecast (for March demand)
= 144
Criterion of Realism (Hurwicz)
This is a weighted average compromise between optimism and pessimism.
Select a coefficient of realism , with 01.
A value of 1 is perfectly optimistic, while a value of 0 is perfectly pessimistic.
Compute the weighted aver
Decision Trees
Decision Trees: The Decision Making Process
Clearly define the problem at hand.
List the possible alternatives.
Identify the possible outcomes or states of nature.
List the payoff (typically profit) of each combination of alternatives a
Statistics
INTRODUCTIO
Statistics means numerical information expressed in quantitative terms,
from a layman. This information may relate to objects, subjects, activities,
phenomena, or regions of space. As a matter of fact, data have no limits as
to thei