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Exercise 9.3 The following data represent total revenues (from all sources) for the Palmdale Human Service Agency for the past four fiscal years:

Exercise 9.3
The following data represent total revenues (from all sources) for the Palmdale
Human Service Agency for the past four fiscal years:
20X1 $15,000,000
20X2 $14,250,000
20X3 $14,000,000
20X4 $13,500,000
Forecast total revenues for fiscal year 20X5 using moving averages, weighted moving
averages, exponential smoothing, and time series regression. For moving averages
and weighted moving averages, use only the data for the past three fiscal
years. For weighted moving averages, assign a value of 1 to the data for 20X2, a
value of 2 to the data for 20X3, and a value of 3 to the data for 20X4. For exponential
smoothing, assume that the last forecast for fiscal year 20X4 was $13,000,000.
You decide on the alpha to be used for exponential smoothing. For time series
regression, use the data for all four fiscal years. Which forecast will you use? Why?

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