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Example: How to 1Ilsorlut the math alone Disease X occurs at a prevalence of 10 per 109,091] population. Screening test Y has a sensitivity of95% and...

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We are exploring sensitivity and specificity this week. This can let you know the limitations of a test for a disease. More and more labs, hospitals, and public health agencies are moving to molecular methods to test for disease, but often for screening tests we use test like EIA or other rapid immunogenic tests.

Your goal:

Select a disease

  • Find the prevalence of that disease in the US
  • Find a screening test for that disease and the manufacturer's reported sensitivity and specificity
  • Apply that proportion to a random population of 100,000 people
  • Calculate the predictive positive value and the predictive negative value
  • Answer the question: Does it make sense to screen for this disease using this test and based on the natural history of the disease why or why not?


Screen Shot 2018-05-11 at 7.33.15 PM.png

Screen Shot 2018-05-11 at 7.33.15 PM.png

Example: How to 1Ilsorlut the math alone
Disease X occurs at a prevalence of 10 per 109,091] population. Screening test Y has a sensitivity of95% and a specificity of 30%.I Step 1:
II ‘sease (+J " .5935: ('2!
est {+3 95% 211%
est {—) 5% 311%
19 999,999
Step 2:
II ‘sease (+) I. .5935: ('2!
est {+) 9.5 199,993
est {—) .5 199,992 —-_ 999,99!) From this point, you can easily calculate the predictive positive and the predictive negative
values. The real challenge is going to look at the natural history of the diseaseI cost of the test,
treatment of the disease and determine if screening is appropriate. If it is appropriate or not. you
have to provide researched justification as to why it is not or is and if there are certain groups it
would be best to screen or prioritize why or why not.

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