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I need help coming up with a forecast of Annual Sales Volume for The Sweet Password, a confectionery business. Pro Forma Forecast of Annual Sales
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I need help coming up with a forecast of Annual Sales Volume for The Sweet Password, a confectionery business.

Pro Forma Forecast of Annual Sales Volume is a critically important part of your business plan and CANNOT BE SKIPPED. "What is a Pro Forma Forecast of Annual Sales Volume?" you ask. It is a prediction of the sales volume that your proposed business venture will experience in the future. Yes - in the future! The forecast is to display yearly data looking forward over the next five years. The forecast is to presume that your expansion plan has been installed and the volume that you forecast should be based on the expanded business. And volume means quantity, not value so don't get caught up in predicting revenue.



Market Research Process


While entering a new expansionary investment, market research enables the most accurate allocation of resources, seeking the maximum result. The objective of this research is to identify similarities and differences in demographic data as it relates to the particular business and product preferences. Our data collection encompassed a series of selective survey questions which included areas such as demographic information and basic lifestyle characteristics. Along with the exploratory demographic information collected, specific questions pertaining to the consumption of confectionery foods were designed to provide valuable insights into the health preferences of potential customers. Specifically, the survey conducted for The Sweet Password served to answer the following questions: What devices should be the focus of eCommerce development - Mobile (Apple/Android) or Web Application, is the product competitively priced relative to average gift purchases, would a subscription service be viable, and through what media should our marketing budget operate. With precision marketing in mind, questions were also presented to collect social media preferences. These results constitute the formulation of recommendations for social media marketing, enabling marketers to guide information to the appropriate audience. A questionnaire was administered to thirty selected respondents that included 28 questions with specific answer choices, and only two questions with free text fields. Once data was collected, it was organized into a structured trend analysis, which was then used to produce recommendations per the initial goals.



Shared Attributes


Of our selected respondents, several attributes are shared. All the participants shop online at least once a month and were willing to spend more than $25 monthly for gift giving. 63% of the survey participants were parents. 56% of the respondents are married, while 23% are single. In terms of occupation, 93% of respondents were presently employed; the remaining 7% retired. The age variation of the respondents varied. The largest percentage, 37%, coming from the 20-29 age group. Another shared attribute is social media usage; 80% of all respondents were active on social media. And most importantly noted, 95% of the participants said that they enjoy sweets at least a couple of times a month.

summarized results from the respondents including the trends


Evaluation of the results gathered from the marketing survey revealed that those surveyed who were in the 40 to 50 age categories do not currently hold an active subscription and were not likely to start a new one. However, those respondents currently holding 5 or more active subscription/membership services were between the ages of 20-29. These respondents mostly browse for products and gift items on their smartphones (Apple, Android), as well as use social media such as Facebook and Instagram. This demographic category also stated that they would be somewhat likely to try something new based on a social media recommendation. When surveyed about food trends, the response was that those who enjoy sweets or enjoy sweets occasionally would be interested in trying sweets that are organic, keto-friendly, low in sugar or sugar-free, and gluten-free. 83% of all respondents were willing to try a new product that is gluten-free, low in sugar, organic, or keto-friendly. The survey also revealed that the most important feature when shopping for a gift was quality with 50% of the participants basing their choices for gifts on product quality. Other gift choices were based on uniqueness (20%), customer service (10%), variety of the product (5%), product features (5%), product delivery (5%), and price (5%). The average cost that the consumers wished to spend on gifts was between $26-$50.


When asked how often they purchased gift baskets, the results showed that gift basket purchases were unpopular; most respondents choosing between less than once a month and never; 75% of the participants have never purchased a gift basket. Additionally, when asked how likely they would be to subscribe to a business that provides sweets, candies, or baked goods each month, the results were mixed. Although 60% were willing to get a new subscription service, less than 50% were willing to subscribe to a business that provides sweet treats, candies, or baked goods every month. We have speculated that this was dependent on the cost of the subscription and the details of the subscription. Subscription prices range from $14.99 and higher, depending on the company and types of products they provide in the membership. We also can speculate that this is dependent on the subscriber and their current financial obligation to their current memberships.


Only 8% of the participants said that they shop only in-store. The remaining population shops either online or both online and in-store. Online shoppers use either their Phone (80%), their computer (15%), or their tablet (5%) to make their online purchases. There was also a strong correlation between income level and average price for gift-giving; the higher the income level, the higher the amount spent on gifts. The survey results also show that the older the participant is, the more he/she is willing to invest in a gift. As far as frequency of gift buying, dating, engaged, and married people were likely to buy gifts many more times a month then their single counterparts.


interpretation of those results and the conclusions


There are two separate streams for the marketing of The Secret Password; Subscription services and brick-and-mortar stores. It is clear, based on the marketing survey, that subscription services should only be marketed to the age group of 20-29. This population group is more likely to subscribe to a subscription and is more influenced by social media marketing. The older population groups buy more gifts and spend more money on the gifts that they buy, however they are not interested in a subscription. For these consumers, the focus should be on building storefronts where they can shop, both instore and online, and pick up their gifts at the store (Buy Online Pickup In-Store). According to those surveyed quality is the most important feature when selecting gifts, followed by uniqueness. By offering high quality in unique creations, The Secret Password will have hit 70% of all respondents' most important features. Surprisingly, gift baskets are not a popular trend and not much of the population intends to purchase these in the near future. The Sweet Password should reconsider whether or not they should continue to pursue this market.  

recommendations based on the conclusions,


Based on the data from the market survey, most people that would take interest in The Sweet Password business are married, have children, and use social media. With this information, the brick and mortar stores should be marketed as family-oriented and could be expanded through franchising. For social media marketing, the most common apps used are Facebook and Instagram. These platforms will reach all ages evenly. Most people who are open to using a new online subscription service are under 30 and are already subscribed to one or more. In order for The Sweet Password to be successful in this area, they will need to have a unique take on sweet treats and should offer what most businesses do not. In order to fill the needs of both of these population groups, The Sweet Password will need to have a storefront along with subscriptions available. Since it seems like all people are interested in gluten-free, keto, low in sugar, sugar-free, and organic products, and these are low in suppliers, The Sweet Password can overcome this challenge by offering these niche products to attract customers. As most bakery treats are unhealthy, by creating healthier alternatives, a competitive advantage can be obtained. Additionally, there is an incredible market opportunity for gift purchases. The average price people are willing to spend on others is less than $50. The competitor's arrangements usually start around $50. If The Sweet Password can develop a gift line with a price below $50, and still offer impeccable quality, the demand for their gift line will rise. Finally, a subscription service via a mobile app (Apple and Android) and a website should be marketed to the 20-29 year age division. This demographic is more open to expanding their subscription services, and more likely to try something new based on a social media recommendation and word of mouth approach to friends and family.  

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