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A major source of revenue in Texas is a state sales tax on certain types of goods and services.

A major source of revenue in Texas is a state sales tax on certain
types of goods and services. Data are compiled and the state
comptroller uses them to project future revenues for the state budget.
One particular category of goods is classified as Retail Trade. Four
years of quarterly data for one particular area of southeast Texas
follows:

quarter year 1 year 2 year 3 year 4
------------------------------------------------------------
1 218 225 234 250
2 247 254 265 283
3 243 255 264 289
4 292 299 327 356

a)compute seasonal indices for each quarter based on a CMA.
b)Deseasonal the data and develop a trend line on the deseasonalized
data.
c)Use the trend line to forecast the sales for each quarter of year 5.
d)Use the seasonal indices to adjust the forecasts found in part (c)
to obtain the final forecasts.

This question was asked on Mar 21, 2010.

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