A variety of routine maintenance checks are made on commercial airplanes
prior to each takeoff. A particular maintenance check of an
airplaneâs landing gear requires between 10 and 18 minutes of a
maintenance engineerâs time. In fact, the exact time required is
uniformly distributed over this interval. As part of a larger
simulation model designed to determine total on-ground maintenance time
for an airplane, we will need to simulate the actual time required to
perform this maintenance check on the airplaneâs landing gear. Using
random numbers of 0.1567, 0.9823, 0.3419, 0.5572 and 0.7758, compute the
time required for each of five simulated maintenance checks of the
airplaneâs landing gear.
The management of Brinkley Corporation is interested in using simulation
to estimate the profit per unit for a new product. Probability
distributions for the purchase cost, the labor cost and the
transportation cost are as follows:
Purchase Cost ($) Probability Labor Cost ($) Probability Transportation
Cost ($) Probability
10 0.25 20 0.10 3 0.75
11 0.45 22 0.25 5 0.25
12 0.30 24 0.35 Â Â
Â Â 25 0.30 Â Â
Assume that these are the only costs and that the selling price for the
product will be $45 per unit.
Provide the base-case, worst-case and best case calculations for the
profit per unit.
Set up intervals of random numbers that can be used to randomly generate
the three cost components.
Using the random numbers 0.3726, 0.5839 and 0.8275, calculate the profit
Using the random numbers 0.1862, 0.7466 and 0.6171, calculate the profit
Management believes the project may not be profitable if the profit per
unit is less than $5. Explain how simulation can be used to estimate
the probability the profit per unit will be less than $5.
Suppose that a decision maker faced with four decision alternatives and
four states of nature develops the following profit payoff table.
Â Â State of Nature Â
Decision Alternative S1 S2 S3 S4
d1 14 9 10 5
d2 11 10 8 7
d3 9 10 10 11
d6 8 10 11 13
If the decision maker knows nothing about the probabilities of the four
states of nature, what is the recommended decision using the optimistic,
conservative and minimax regret approaches?
Which approach do you prefer? Explain. Is establishing the most
appropriate approach before analyzing the problem important for the
decision maker? Explain.
Assume that the payoff table provides cost rather than profit payoffs.
What is the recommended decision using the optimistic, conservative and
minimax regret approaches?
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