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FORECASTING AND BUSINESS ANALYSIS (ECON2007) Study Period 2, 2010 DUE AT 5.00 PM., FRIDAY, 4th June, 2010 The main body of your report, including an...

"In December, 2009, an international retail company, OurVees, considered to expand its business into the Adelaide market. They approached you, a local renowned business consultant for a feasibility study. They are interested in your forecast of Recreational Good Retail Turnover (RGRT) in 2010 as a reference for their forecasted sale if they start their business operation in Adelaide.
You are presented with the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) information on Adelaidde’s RGRT from April 1982 through March 2010. This information together with the information on the unemployment rate (UR), the consumer price index (CPI) and the average weekly earnings (AWE) per person in Adelaide.
Some Hints
1. Convert the original monthly RGRT series to a quarterly series by taking the average across the three months in a quarter.
2. Following the protocol shown on in box labeled “Exercise 9.7” on page 154 of Koop, test for a unit root for each of the variables except for CPI. You may also wish to consider converting the nominal RGRT and AWE to the real dollars by dividing them by CPI to see if it improves in relation to the nonstationarity problem.
3. Make sure your identified model is free of insignificant explanatory variables
4. Create your business report, in which you will document and discuss the results of your analysis. Your report should include the following items:
• An executive summary
• Introduction to the problem
2
• Justifications and discussions of methodologies
• Evaluation of results and discussions of limitations
• Conclusions"
1 FORECASTING AND BUSINESS ANALYSIS (ECON2007) Study Period 2, 2010 DUE AT 5.00 PM., FRIDAY, 4 th June, 2010 The main body of your report, including an executive summary of 100 words, should not exceed 1100 words. The appendix of your report does not count for this limit. Your report should be supported by tables and/or graphs where appropriate. An electronic copy of your assignment is to be submitted online using the AssignIT facility by the due date, while a hard copy of the identical version of your assignment is to be submitted to your tutor in your tutorial in the following week. There is a penalty of 20% of the total mark for late submission of each day. The only exception to this is if your tutor approves an extension prior to the due date, for legitimate reasons based on documented evidence . So you should collect your documented evidence before you contact your tutor for an extension. Plagiarism is a specific form of academic misconduct. If found, both parties will be penalised regardless of who copies from whom. The electronic version of your submitted assignment will be used for a plagiarism check. The data file needed for this assignment is available on the course web site under the Assignment folder, where this document is located. Your Task In December, 2009, an international retail company, OurVees, considered to expand its business into the Adelaide market. They approached you, a local renowned business consultant for a feasibility study. They are interested in your forecast of Recreational Good Retail Turnover (RGRT) in 2010 as a reference for their forecasted sale if they start their business operation in Adelaide. You are presented with the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) information on Adelaidde’s RGRT from April 1982 through March 2010. This information together with the information on the unemployment rate (UR), the consumer price index (CPI) and the average weekly earnings (AWE) per person in Adelaide. Some Hints 1. Convert the original monthly RGRT series to a quarterly series by taking the average across the three months in a quarter. 2. Following the protocol shown on in box labeled “Exercise 9.7” on page 154 of Koop, test for a unit root for each of the variables except for CPI. You may also wish to consider converting the nominal RGRT and AWE to the real dollars by dividing them by CPI to see if it improves in relation to the nonstationarity problem. 3. Make sure your identified model is free of insignificant explanatory variables 4. Create your business report, in which you will document and discuss the results of your analysis. Your report should include the following items: An executive summary Introduction to the problem
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2 Justifications and discussions of methodologies Evaluation of results and discussions of limitations Conclusions The following are some guidelines that we will use to mark your assignments. This may help you in preparing your assignment. Main article Superb (80%) include all main results; accompanying well-presented and meaningful graphs and tables; accurate, consistent and logical arguments; well-written. Good, solid report (60-70%) it is not superb in all aspects above, but an overall impression of the report suggests that it is a very good and solid report. Acceptable, but with several weaknesses (40-50%) it clearly contains some mistakes, but overall it covers most important findings. Quite inadequate (0-30%) the report contains many mistakes. An overall impression suggests that assignments were done with little effort and students do not understand most of the concepts introduced in the course. Appendix (20%) Include all necessary Excel outputs. Your appendix may include some technical materials. The appendix should be well sorted out and with brief descriptions, so that they are easy to follow. Please note: marks are deducted for excessive or irrelevant output, in particular, printouts of the worksheet.
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