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This research paper provides the "real world" opportunity to analyze and evaluate population projections and the impact that fertility, mortality,

This research paper provides the “real world” opportunity to analyze and evaluate population projections and the impact that fertility, mortality, and migration assumptions can have on the future size of a population and its demographic make-up. The topic of the paper is U.S. Demographics to the Year 2050 and the Outlook for Social Security. I hope this will be a challenging and rewarding exercise. Good luck.

The paper should not be based only on data/information from a published source that has already analyzed. It must analyze and draw conclusions from original data, which are national population projections prepared by the U.S. Census Bureau. They are contained in an Excel spreadsheet (US_Pop2000-2050.xls) on the class Website. The Projections Tab contains population by selected age groups for the launch year 2000, four horizon years (2010-2050 in 10-year time increments), and four alternatives (low, middle, highest, and no immigration series) The Assumptions Tab shows the fertility, mortality and migration assumptions for each alternative. Articles on electronic reserve, the Internet, and the class website are available as resources.

The paper must address these questions (points are shown in parenthesis):
1. What segments of the age distribution most influence the social security system? What measures have been used to relate these segments? What are the strengths and weaknesses of these measures? What one measure is going to be used and why? (10 pts)
2. Based on the selected measure, how does the age distribution vary under the different projection alternatives and why? Which alternatives are the most and least favorable to the social security system and why? (20 points)
3. Based on the selected measure, how does the age distribution vary within the 50-year forecast horizon? What are the reasons for these trends? (5 pts)
4. How would the demographic outlook for social security change if the retirement age was increased to 70 years in the year 2020 and held at that age until the year 2050? (5 points)
5. Which one of the four projection alternatives is most likely to occur (i.e., as a forecast) and why (i.e. specify and justify the total fertility rate, life expectancy, and immigration assumptions)? You may also create assumptions by combining elements from the alternate scenarios or specifying and justifying assumption values not in any scenario. (15 points)
6. Playing the role as president, what strategies would be implemented to address the social security system problem? Why would these be selected over the other strategies being considered? (10 points)
7. Overall Quality: organization; including an Introduction and Conclusion; spelling and grammar; professional looking graphs/tables; proper citations and bibliography; well articulated, concise, supported, and documented arguments (10 pts)

i would like to know how much

This question was asked on May 05, 2010.

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