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Roy has prostate cancer. He has three alternatives: surgery,
chemotherapy and playing a lot of golf. Prostate cancer is a very bad
disease, so he will die soon, regardless of what he does. He likes to play golf. If he chooses golf (and has no medical treatment),
he will live on year in pain, but be able to enjoy his golf game during that time, then he will die. If he undergoes chemotherapy, he will suffer tremendous nausea for six
months and then he will either live for one good year or die right away.
If he has prostate surgery he will either live two good years or die on the operating table. He wants to make his decision based on the probabilities assigned by
his doctor, saying that there is a 60% chance that the surgery will give
its better outcome and a 60% chance that chemotherapy will give its
better outcome. Which alternative should Roy choose?

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