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14. Use the model obtained in parts 13 and make forecasts for the following months. Make sure to seasonalize

final forecasts. (see #13 below)


Period                          Price              AIP              ADV  

June       2019              $6.10             $7.65              $10.1 

July      2019              $6.15             $7.70              $10.4

August    2019              $6.30             $7.95              $10.7


13. Perform multiple linear regression analysis with Period, DIFF, and ADV as independent variables. Write the equation and find MAD. Which variable is the most significant predictor of demand? Rank the independent variables based on their degree of contribution to the model. Observe significant F, R-squared, and p-values and explain.


Summer - 2019 Data Set

Month/Yr. PERIOD PRICE AIP DIFF ADV DEMAND

Sept. 2016 1 6.1 5.8 -0.3 5.3 9.4

2 5.75 6 0.25 6.75 10.3

3 5.7 6.3 0.6 7.25 11.5

4 5.7 5.7 0 7.3 11.1

Jan. 2017 5 5.6 5.85 0.25 7.2 11

6 5.6 5.8 0.2 6.5 10.5

7 5.6 5.75 0.15 6.75 10.2

8 6.3 5.85 -0.45 6.89 8.9

9 6.4 5.65 -0.75 5.8 8.3

10 6.2 6 -0.2 5.5 8.12

11 5.9 6.1 0.2 6.5 8.8

12 5.9 6 0.1 6.25 9.8

13 5.7 6.1 0.4 7 10.1

14 5.75 6.2 0.45 6.9 11.3

15 5.75 6.1 0.35 6.8 12.5

16 5.8 6.1 0.3 6.8 12.4

Jan. 2018 17 5.7 6.2 0.5 7.1 12.1

18 5.8 6.3 0.5 7 11.8

19 5.7 6.1 0.4 6.8 11.5

20 5.8 5.75 -0.05 6.5 11

21 5.8 5.75 -0.05 8.1 10.2

22 5.75 5.65 -0.1 7.7 10.3

23 5.7 5.9 0.2 7.3 10.9

24 5.55 5.65 0.1 7.5 11.2

25 5.6 6.1 0.5 8.1 12.5

26 5.65 6.25 0.6 8.3 13.4

27 5.7 5.65 -0.05 8.7 14.7

28 5.75 5.75 0 9.2 14.1

Jan. 2019 29 5.8 5.85 0.05 8.4 14

30 5.3 6.25 0.95 8.8 13.5

31 5.4 6.3 0.9 9.5 13.5

32 5.7 6.4 0.7 9.3 13.1

May. 2019 33 5.9 6.5 0.6 9.1 12.5

Jun-19 34

Jul-19 35

Aug-19 36

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