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Forecasting Case/Problem


Joel Sims Cakes Shoppe

is trying not only to get accurate forecasts for three types of his cakes that he sells, but also to determine which forecasting method should be used from now that will be suited for each of the cakes. His past sixteen months of sales data (in hundreds) are shown in the table below.



Past Months Blueberry Muffins Cinnamon Buns Cupcakes

1 30 18 43

2 34 17 29

3 32 19 26

4 34 19 23

5 35 22 49

6 30 23 32

7 34 23 20

8 36 25 14

9 29 24 52

10 31 26 30

11 35 27 24

12 31 28 22

13 37 29 55

14 35 31 35

15 34 33 28

16 32 30 26

a)     By plotting the historical sales data of all the three cake types on same graph, please suggest the possible forecasting method(s) you may want to consider for each cake type. Please state your reasons.


b)     Cupcakes: Suppose you have restricted your forecasting method to a choice between only Moving Averages (3 months only) or Seasonal Forecast with trend:

                                                       i.           Determine your forecasts using each method

                                                     ii.            Using MAD, which method would you recommend and state why?

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