Question

1) Bus and subway ridership for the summer months in Hong Kong is

believed to be tied heavily to the number of tourist visiting the city. During the past 12 years, the following data have been obtained. (Total 40%) a) Plot these data and decide if a linear model is reasonable. (10%) b) Develop a regression relationship. (10%) c) What is expected ridership if 10 million tourists visit Hong Kong in a year? (10%) d) Explain the predicted ridership if there are no tourists at all. (10%)


2) BMW car sales was growth in HK, for the year of 2011 are shown in the following table, along with monthly indexes (seasonal relatives), which are supplied to the dealer by the regional distributor. (Total 30%) a) Plot the data. Does there seem to be a trend? (5%) b) Deseasonalise car sales. (10%) c) Plot the deseaonalised data on the same graph as the original data. Comment on the two graphs. (5%) d) Assuming no proactive approach on the part of management, discuss how you would forecast sales for the first three months of the next year. (Moving average forecast may be used) (5%) e) What action might management consider based on your findings in part b? (5%)


The data:
Month Units Sold Index Month Units Sold Index Jan.... 640 0.80 Jul.... 765 0.90 Feb.... 648 0.80 Aug.... 805 1.15 Mar.... 630 0.70 Sep.... 840 1.20 Apr.... 761 0.94 Oct.... 828 1.20 May.... 735 0.89 Nov.... 840 1.25 Jun.... 850 1.00 Dec.... 800 1.25 

1) Bus and subway ridership for the summer months in Hong Kong is believed to be tied heavily to the number of tourist visiting the city. During the
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