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Question

 Forecasting Case Analysis

MGT 3332

Fall

2019




The Fresh Detergent Case


Enterprise Industries produces Fresh, a brand of liquid detergent. In order to more effectively manage its inventory, the company would like to better predict demand for Fresh. To develop a prediction model, the company has gathered data concerning demand for Fresh over the last 45 sales periods. Each sales period is defined as one month. The variables are as follows:


Demand = Y = demand for a large size bottle of Fresh (in 100,000)

Price = the price of Fresh as offered by Ent. Industries

AIP = the average industry price

ADV = Ent. Industries Advertising Expenditure (in $100,000) to Promote Fresh in the sales period.

DIFF = AIP - Price = the "price difference" in the sales period




10- Find the seasonally adjusted trend forecasts for October through December 2019.


11- Perform simple linear regression analysis with ADV as the independent variable to predict demand. Write the complete equation, find MAD and explain the Excel Regression output. Make sure to use the de-seasonalized demand data for this model and all future models.

12- Repeat part (11) with DIFF as the independent variable.


13- Construct multiple linear regression model with Period, AIP, DIFF, and ADV as independent variables. Formulate the equation, find MAD, and explain the output. Rank variables based on their degree of contribution to the model. Observe significant F, R-squared, and p-values and explain.


14- Perform multiple linear regression analysis with Period, DIFF, and ADV as independent variables. Formulate the equation and find MAD. Which variable is the most significant predictor of demand? Rank the independent variables based on their degree of contribution to the model. Observe significant F, R-squared, and p-values and explain.


15- Use the model obtained in parts 14 and make forecasts for the following months. Make sure to seasonalize final forecasts.


Period                          Price              AIP              ADV  

Oct.       2019              $3.30             $9.65              $11.7 

Nov.     2019              $3.45             $9.70              $11.8

Dec.       2019              $3.80             $9.95              $12.1


16- Provide a case conclusion based on above analysis.





MGT 3332 Forecasting Dataset

Fall 2019

Month/Yr. PERIOD PRICE AIP DIFF ADV DEMAND

Jan. 2016 1 6.6 6.0 -0.6 5.3 12.9

2 6.3 6.6 0.3 6.8 14.5

3 6.0 6.4 0.4 7.3 14.7

4 6.1 6.1 0.0 7.3 14.9

5 5.9 6.4 0.5 7.2 14.9

6 5.9 6.3 0.4 6.5 14.6

7 5.9 6.0 0.1 6.8 13.8

8 6.8 6.0 -0.8 6.9 12.0

9 6.8 5.8 -1.0 5.8 11.5

10 6.4 6.3 -0.1 5.5 11.5

11 6.5 6.3 -0.2 6.5 11.9

12 6.3 6.2 -0.1 6.3 13.5

Jan. 2017 13 6.1 6.5 0.4 7.0 14.0

14 6.1 6.6 0.5 6.9 14.5

15 6.0 6.3 0.3 6.8 16.0

16 6.4 6.7 0.3 6.8 15.7

17 6.2 6.5 0.3 7.1 15.8

18 6.0 6.8 0.8 7.0 15.2

19 6.1 6.6 0.5 7.2 15.9

20 6.4 6.1 -0.3 7.5 14.7

21 6.0 6.1 0.1 7.8 15.0

22 6.2 6.2 0.0 8.2 15.0

23 6.1 6.0 -0.1 8.3 14.4

24 6.0 6.2 0.2 8.4 16.9

Jan. 2018 25 6.1 6.7 0.6 8.9 17.4

26 5.9 6.9 1.0 9.1 17.7

27 6.0 5.8 -0.2 9.3 17.6

28 6.3 5.8 -0.5 9.4 18.4

29 6.0 6.0 0.0 9.3 18.6

30 5.7 6.7 1.0 9.4 17.4

31 5.6 6.4 0.8 9.5 18.4

32 6.2 7.0 0.8 9.6 17.6

33 6.4 7.2 0.8 9.7 16.7

34 6.5 5.9 -0.6 9.9 16.1

35 6.2 6.0 -0.2 9.8 17.3

36 6.7 6.2 -0.5 9.9 16.8

Jan. 2019 37 6.9 6.0 -0.9 10.1 19.0

38 6.9 6.3 -0.6 10.2 19.0

39 6.7 6.5 -0.2 10.5 19.8

40 7.0 6.0 -1.0 10.3 19.8

41 7.1 6.1 -1.0 9.9 20.0

42 7.2 6.3 -0.9 10.5 20.9

43 7.2 6.4 -0.8 10.6 19.6

44 7.3 6.5 -0.8 10.5 19.5

45 7.2 6.0 -1.2 10.7 19.0

Oct. 2019 46

Nov. 2019 47

Dec. 2019 48







NOTE: I NEED TO SEE THE EXCEL PROCESS IN EACH QUESTION , PLEASE ATTACHMENT THE WORK EXCEL. submit a copy of Word file and Excel file of their work Please...!!!

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