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Year t+1 follows Year t; Year 5 is the most recent year, e.g., 2019, and Year 1 is the oldest in the dataset,

e.g.,


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1. Use Winters Method to forecast the Sales in Year 6 for months January thru' December. Assume that all smoothing parameters are equal to 0.1


2. One method for setting smoothing parameters α, β, and γ is to experiment with various values of the parameters that retrospectively give the best fit of previous forecasts to the observed history of the series. Changing these α, β, and γ values by hand can be very tedious. However, Excel and Excel Solver make it much easier to determine appropriate smoothing parameters. Develop a method using past forecast errors and Excel solver to come up with a way to pick "best" values for the smoothing parameters you used in part 1) to forecast demand in Year 6

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