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# Operations Management MGT320 Assignment 3 1- List the specific weaknesses of each of these approaches to developing a forecast: a. Consumer Survey.

Operations Management MGT320 Assignment 3 1- List the specific weaknesses of each of these approaches to developing a forecast: a. Consumer Survey. b. Sales force composite. c. Jury of Executive. 2- How does the number of periods in the moving average affect the responsiveness of the forecast? 3- Explain the trade-off between responsiveness and stability in a forecasting system that uses time series. 4- Who need to be involved in preparing forecasts? 5- Two Different forecasting techniques (F1 and F2) were used to forecast demand for cases of bottled water. Actual demand and the two sets of forecast are as follows: Period Demand Predicted Demand F1 F2 1 68 66 66 2 75 68 68 3 70 72 70 4 74 71 72 5 69 72 74 6 72 70 76 7 80 71 78 8 78 74 80
Compute MAD and MSE for each set of forecast, which forecast appears to be more accurate? Explain. 6- Lovely lawns, Inc., intend to use sales of lawn fertilizer to predict lawn mower sales. The store manager estimates a probable six- week lag between fertilizer sales and mower sales. The data are: Period Fertilizer sales (tons) Number of Mowers sold (6 week lag) 1 1.6 10 2 1.3 8 3 1.8 11 4 2.0 12 5 2.2 12 6 1.6 9 7 1.5 8 8 1.3 7 9 1.7 10 10 1.2 6 11 1.9 11 12 1.4 8 13 1.7 10 14 1.6 9 a. Predict expected lawn mower sales for the first week in August, given fertilizer sales six weeks earlier of 2 tons. b. Illustrate the type of the relationships between the two variables graphically and numerically.

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