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# 1 The following gives the number of pints of type A blood used at Woodlawn Hospital in the past 6 weeks: a) Forecast the demand for the week of...

4.5 The Carbondale Hospital is considering the purchase
of a new ambulance. The decision will rest partly on the anticipated
mileage to be driven next year. The miles driven during the past 5
years are as follows:
Year Mileage
1 3,000
2 4,000
3 3,400
4 3,800
5 3,700
6
b) Find the MAD based on the 2-year moving average forecast in
part (a). (Hint: You will have only 3 years of matched data.)

c) Use a weighted 2-year moving average with weights of .4 and .6
to forecast next year’s mileage. (The weight of .6 is for the most
recent year.) What MAD results from using this approach to
forecasting? (Hint: You will have only 3 years of matched data.)

d) Compute the forecast for year 6 using exponential smoothing, an
initial forecast for year 1 of 3,000 miles, and α = .5

Excel Tab Problem 4.5 - I have started this problem but I do not understand question B C & D, I think I have part A correct.
4.1 The following gives the number of pints of type A blood used at Woodlawn Hospital in the past 6 weeks: a) Forecast the demand for the week of October 12 using a 3-week moving average. Weeks of Pints 21-Sep 381 28-Sep 368 total of pints / 3 weeks 5-Oct 374 Total 1123 3 week moving avg. 374.33 pints b) Use a 3-week weighted moving average, with weights of .1, .3, and .6, using .6 for the most recent week. Forecast demand for the week of October 12. Weeks of Pints Weights Weighted moving avg 21-Sep 381 0.1 38.1 28-Sep 368 0.3 110.4 5-Oct 374 0.6 224.4 Total weighted average 372.9 Forecast demand for week October 12 372.9 c) Compute the forecast for the week of October 12 using exponential smoothing with a forecast for August 31 of 360 and α = .2 Weeks of Pints Forecast New forecast = Last period’s forecast 31-Aug 360 360 +α (Last period’s actual demand - Last period’s forecast) 7-Sep 389 360 14-Sep 410 365.8 360+0.2*(360-360) 21-Sep 381 374.64 28-Sep 368 375.91 5-Oct 374 374.33 12-Oct 374.26 Forecasted for the week of Oct 12 374.26
4.3 Refer to Problem4.2.Develop a forecast for years 2 through 12 using exponential smoothing with α = .4 and a forecast for year 1 of 6. Plot your new forecast on a graph with the actual data and the naive forecast. Based on a visual inspection, which forecast is better? α 0.4 year 1 6 Year Demand Naïve forecast Exponential smoothing 1 7 6 2 9 7 6.40 3 5 9 7.44 4 9 5 6.46 5 13 9 7.48 6 8 13 9.69 7 12 8 9.01 8 13 12 10.21 9 9 13 11.32 10 11 9 10.39 11 7 11 10.64 The exponential smoothing forecast shows a steady trend vs. the other two forecast which show more ups and downs. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Column D Column E Exponential smoothing
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