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Scott Armstrong, the managing editor of Your Horoscope magazine, needs to develop a forecasting system for monthly newsstand sales in order to...

Scott Armstrong, the managing editor of Your Horoscope magazine, needs to develop a forecasting system for monthly newsstand sales in order to schedule press runs. Sales in thousands of copies for the first 7 months of publication were:

Year Month Sales
2012 August 70
September 75
October 85
November 82
December 90
2013 January 82
February 88

Scott does not believe there is a seasonal pattern. He is considering three different forecasting models: three-period moving average, simple exponential smoothing with , and time series regression (i.e., trend projection). Determine the best forecasting model among the above three methods, and develop a forecast for March 2013. Use the first four months as the warm-up sample period and the remaining months as the forecasting sample period. The criteria of measuring forecast accuracy to be used are Bias, MAD, MSE, and MAPE
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Scott Armstrong, the managing editor of Your Horoscope magazine, needs to develop a forecasting system for
monthly newsstand sales in order to schedule press runs. Sales in thousands of copies for...

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