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Exercise 2.

Exercise 2. Starting with a hypothetical population of 14,000 people and an even age distribution (1,000 in each age group from 1-5 to 66-70 years), assume that the population initially has a total fertility rate of 2.0 and an average life span of 70 years. Using the spreadsheet for exercises 1-3, estimate how the population will change from this generation to the next under each of the following conditions.
a. Total fertility rate and life expectancy remain constant.
b. Total fertility rate changes to 4.0; life expectancy remains constant.
c. Total fertility rate changes to 1.0; life expectancy remains constant.
d. Total fertility rate remains at 2.0; life expectancy increases to 100.
e. Total fertility rate remains at 2.0; life expectancy decreases to 50.
F. Total fertility rate changes to 4.0; life expectancy increases to 100.
Most developed countries have infant mortality rates of around 5 deaths per thousand live births, and some developing countries have infant mortality rates exceeding 100 deaths per 1,000 live births. How would either of these rates affect our final populations? Use a speadsheet.
Instructions: Fill in numbers to calculate Future Population in the assigned scenarios
Total Current Future Future
Current Fertility Life Life Population
Population Rate Expectancy Expectancy = CP * TFR/2 * FLE / CLE
a 14000 ERR
b 14000 ERR
c 14000 ERR
d 14000 ERR
e 14000 ERR
f 14000 ERR
Future Future
Population Population
(without IMR) IMR (per 1000) Including IMR
= FP * (1000-IMR)/1000
a ERR ERR
b ERR ERR
c ERR ERR
d ERR ERR
e ERR ERR
f ERR ERR
a ERR ERR
b ERR ERR
c ERR ERR
d ERR ERR
e ERR ERR
f ERR ERR

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