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(This is the exact questions from our professor, I have no idea how to revise it)


Question 1.

This question concerns dike monitoring in the Betuwe. The dikes must be properly inspected and repaired if there are defects. If the defects are not detected, a dike can break through at very high water.

 Cf and Cm are negative

with P(s) being the annual probability of very high water in the Betuwe

with P(n) being the complement of P(s)

Vcr = value of a correct rejection

Vh = value of a hit

Cf = costs of a false alarm

Cm = cost of a miss

a) Describe what βopt represents in the formula above.

b) Due to floods in Germany, the probability of high water levels has decreased. What happens to βopt? Please motivate your answer.

c) The house price in the Betuwe has fallen enormously over the past year. What happens toβopt? Please motivate your answer.

Question 2.

Before a plane can take off, the pilots work through a number of pre-flight checklists. At Schiphol, it is currently being investigated what the effects are of replacing paper checklists with Tablets (e.g. the iPad) on flight safety. A brand new cockpit simulator is available for carrying out this research. First, it is investigated where the tablets can best be placed in the cockpit. "Best" here means that the checklist is executed the fastest, without making mistakes.

a) Give an example of situational generalization based on the above research question

In order to carry out the above investigation, three cockpit crews are recruited from KLM. Each of these crews has to complete the "pre-flight" checklist on an iPad in the cockpit simulator in half an hour.

b) Can you generalize the results of the above research to any other airline? Please motivate your answer.

Question 3

Imagine a computer game (see below) in which a red, green, yellow, or blue tile appears up at a random location in a 4 by 4 matrix. The player must then, as fast as possible, press the button with the same color on the answer bar. There are two variants of the game, game A and game B.

In game A all four colors have equiprobability of showing up.

In game B the probability is different for each color:

pyellow tile = 7/16

pgreen tile = 1/16

pred tile = 6/16

pblue tile = 2/16

The time to press a button on the answer bar is at least 200ms (i.e., a=200ms).

屏幕快照 2019-10-15 下午5.30.48.png

a) For game A, the average choice reaction time (RT) is 550ms. Calculate the average choice reaction time for game B. [ANSWER: 493,5ms]

b) In both game A and B the number of choices is 4. How do you explain that the average choice reaction time

in game A is longer than in game B? Use both entropy and probabilities in your answer.

Question 4

A. During work on a ship the employee is exposed to fluctuations, depending on the weather, to a greater or lesser extent ('vibration'). Imagine you want to examine which interface (touch screen, track ball, or mouse) is most suitable for pointing tasks when working on a ship.

(a) What does your experiment look like?

(b) What will you vary and what will you measure?

b. The figure below shows the (hypothetical results) for outcome measures throughput

(a) and variability of the endpoint

(b) Which input device would you recommend for use on a ship and why?

屏幕快照 2019-10-15 下午5.33.41.png

屏幕快照 2019-10-15 下午5.30.48.png

屏幕快照 2019-10-15 下午5.33.41.png

touch screen
O-trck pill
-touch screen
-O- track ball
static pot uncomfortable a little woog ofoctable
static potuncomfortable .[de uncomfortable
Figure: Influence of the degree of vibration on throughput (a) and variability on the endpoint
(b) for mouse, touch screen and trackball.

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