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Situation: Since we had a bad flu season, let's study the sensitivity of the severity of the outbreak on infection rate and time to recover.

 Situation: Since we had a bad flu season, let's study the sensitivity of the severity of the outbreak on infection rate and time to recover. Assume there is a school with a 1000 students that are susceptible to the flu, 1 student that is infected, and 0 students that have recovered. The infection rate is 0.002 infections per interaction (between susceptible and infected students); i.e., students change from susceptible to infected at a daily rate = 0.002*number of susceptible students*number of infected students per day. If it is a 48-hour flu, then the recovery is 2 days.

 

Questions of interest: When does the peak number infected occur? How many students are inflected at the peak? How long before everyone is recovered?

 

Assignment: Vensim model. Submit your model and a Word document that has the image of your stock and flow diagram along with answers to the above questions.

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