A new lie-detector test has been devised and must be tested before it is put into use. Two hundred
Two hundred people are selected at random, and each person draws and keeps a card from a box of 200
200 cards. Half the cards instruct the person to lie and the others instruct the person to tell the truth. Of those who lied, 90
90% fail the new lie-detector test (that is the test indicated lying). Of those who told the truth, 5
5% failed the test. What is the probability that a randomly chosen subject will have lied given that the subject failed the test? That the subject will not have lied given that the subject failed the test?
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