Oil company An oil company hires you to model the probability of finding oil in different regions. After some
research you find out that you can classify regions according to their abundance of oil: in oil-rich regions every time you drill you find oil with a probability of 1/2, in standardregions the probability is 1/10 and in oil-poor regions the probability is 1/100. A new region is oil rich with probability 1/10, standard with probability 8/10, and oil poor with probability 1/10. In addition, for a fixed region, the outcomes of all drilling attempts are independent.
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