Question

# The children's museum found that annual visits (in 1,000) are associated with kindergarten enrollment (in 1,000)

one year prior (Year 2's visits is correlated with enrollment in Year 1) in the community. They gathered data of 8 years as below.

Year visits kindergarten enrollment

1 50 3

2 55 2

3 48 4

4 55 4

5 62 2

6 58 6

7 72 5

8 70 8

1) How would you describe the relationship between the annual visits of the children's museum and kindergarten enrollment one year prior in the community? Does it make sense to use the linear regression method to forecast the annual visits of the children's museum given above data? Justify your answer using appropriate plot or measurement. (reorganize above dataset if necessary in spreadsheet)

2) If the linear regression is appropriate, please construct the regression model using any excel functions introduced in class, and write out the regression model. Is this a good model? Please explain.

3) Forecast annual visits of the children's museum for all possible years using the regression model you obtained in (2).

4) Suppose the museum also intends to use the weighted moving average with weights of 7 and 3 to forecast annual visits. Please generate forecasts for all possible years.

5) If you use MSE as the performance measurement, which forecasting method would you recommend, linear regression or weighted moving average? Please explain.

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