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Data on the total number of (human) deaths reported during an outbreak of the

Ebola virus in a region of west Africa:


              

Day 1:        4

Day 2:       11

Day 4:       17

Day 7:       26

Day 10:      42

Day 12:      58

Day 15:      84

Day 18:      99

Day 20:      108

Day 23:     112

Day 25:     118

Day 28:      120

Day 30:       120



1.  Determine the correlation coefficient (nearest hundredth) and make a formal statement (sse Notes) as to the evidence for a linear relationship. Set the data so that time is the independent variable and number of deaths the dependent


2.  Determine the linear equation that best models this data. Round the slope and intercept to five decimal places.




3. 


a) Interpolate the number of deaths after 15 days, and determine the residual at this point, to the nearest hundredth



b) If the the regression model was a perfect match for the actual rates of death, what would the residual have been?




4.  


Extrapolate the number of deaths after 80 days. Based on the pattern of data at the end of the table, what does this tell you about the process of extrapolation, and what does it tell you about your linear model and the regression process?


Answer requires some common sense and looking at the change in number of deaths at and around the end of the 30 day period.

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