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1. A man has two possible moods: happy and sad. The prior probabilities of these are:
(happy) =
4
His wife can usually judge his mood by how talkative he is. After much observation, she has noticed
that:
. When he is happy,
Pr(talks a lot) =
Pr(talks a little) =
Pr(completely silent) =
OH
. When he is sad,
Pr(talks a lot) =
6
Pr(talks a little) =
, Pr(completely silent) =
(a) Tonight, the man is just talking a little. What is his most likely mood?
(b) What is the probability of the prediction in part (a) being incorrect?

a) Note that, P(talks a little) = P(talks a little and happy) + P(talks a little and sad) = P(talks a little |... View the full answer

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