Winter's model was used to forecast the demand in the table below. Answer the following provided that all smoothing factors are equal to 0.1 and the...
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Winter's model was used to forecast the demand in the table below. Answer the following provided that all

smoothing factors are equal to 0.1 and the periodicity is 12:

a) Find the values of X1, X2, ..., X9 in the table below and show your calculations.

b) What conclusions can you make from the Bias values of this forecasting model (your answer should specifically be based on the data in this table)


Period Actual Demand Level Trend Seasonal Factor Forecast Et At bias MAD

445 0.37

1 387 448 0.67 0.82 362.88 ‐24.12 24.12  ‐24.12 24.12

2 362 449 0.70 0.80 359.57 ‐2.43 2.43  ‐26.55 13.28

3 402 450 0.77 0.88 395.79 ‐6.21 6.21  ‐32.76 10.92

4 394 448 0.45 0.94 423.74 29.74 29.74  ‐3.02 15.63

5 453 448 0.40 1.02 458.10 5.10 5.10 2.08 13.52

6 491 448 0.35 1.11 496.95 5.95 5.95 8.04 12.26

7 462 448 0.36 1.03 460.25 ‐1.75 1.75 6.29 10.76

8 518 447 0.18 1.20 539.56 21.56 21.56 27.85 12.11

9 391 450 0.47 0.82 367.55 ‐23.45 23.45 4.40 13.37

10 343 450 0.40 0.77 348.27 5.27 5.27 9.67 12.56

11 624 448 0.21 1.45 650.98 26.98 26.98 36.65 13.87

12 586 X1 X2 1.26 X3 X4 X5 X6 X7

13 X8 X9

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